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The Big Gamble: Patrick Mahomes

#4
We will see how he does against a defense that can get to him. I think hes good but in all honesty we did not test him Sunday. We were not up to task.
 

TTK

EX-Charger Fan
#5
We will see how he does against a defense that can get to him. I think hes good but in all honesty we did not test him Sunday. We were not up to task.
With his mobility and big arm, he's so exciting to watch. He might just convert me into a Chiefs fan if he keeps it up. Hopefully this past Sunday wasn't just a result of playing against Costa Mesa, since they tend to make rookie QBs look great.
 
#7
You remind me of Bronco fans that thought that Cutler was better than Rivers.

Mahomes will not lead the NFL in passer rating this year as Alex Smith did the year before. In fact, I do not believe that Mahomes will ever lead the NFL in passer rating. He is simply not that accurate of a passer. The INTs are coming and I will be laughing at your Mahomes lovefest when they do.

What is truly both sad and funny at the same time is that you are not even on the right guy's jock. Pssst...Tyreek Hill is the guy that wears #10 for the Chiefs--you know, the guy that had the punt return TD and two pass catch TDs and caught multiple poorly thrown Mahomes passes.

But don't worry, you aren't the only poor blind soul as Mahomes was named AFC Player of the Week over his much more deserving teammate (Hill).
 
#8
I like Alex Smith. He played HS ball right down the street from me. His career has been damaged
by things beyond his control...I don't think he'll be remembered long after he retires. :(

That said, he is a game manager. He can play it safe and amass stats, but Mahomes has a higher potential
ceiling. Of course, "potential" is the most dangerous word in the NFL: Most guys don't come close to living up to theirs.
Will Mahomes? It's still a "gamble" as the glowing article says.
Again, I like and respect Smith...but there's 10 QBs I'd rather have if I'm trying to win a Super Bowl.
Is Mahomes worthy of being in that 10? After looking at the two, side by side, for months, the Chiefs think so.
They know more than I--or anyone else here--do.
 

FiftyFive

Dean Spanos is a traitor!
#11
By the way, imagine still caring about Alex Smith's QB rating in 2018. He gets those ratings by being afraid of ever taking a risk or making a challenging throw - a style that simply does not work in the playoffs against real teams. He's the QB equivalent of all those college basketball programs that game the RPI.
 

SDRay

Let's go Fleet! #BoatUp #AnchorDown
Staff member
Administrator
Podcaster
#12
If Mahomes was backing up Rivers, Chain would be raving about him like he was the already a first ballot HOFer.
 

TTK

EX-Charger Fan
#13
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/9...ahomes-tyreek-hill-kansas-city-chiefs-offense

The Chiefs’ unique brand of physical dominance, explained in one play

Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill have already shown they can connect on plays that no other duo can in the preseason, but the regular season is a different beast. They picked up right where they left off in their season opener against the Chargers.

Hill caught seven of his eight targets for an insane 169 yards and two touchdowns. Their first touchdown of the day stood out in particular.

The Chiefs are running an RPO and they’re outnumbered in the box, forcing Mahomes to pull the ball from Kareem Hunt and throw it down the field. Center Mitch Morse immediately gets beat off the snap by Brandon Mebane, cutting down the window that Mahomes is able to throw into. Mebane is almost in his lap before he can finish his drop on the play.

Rifling a pass into the teeth of a zone defense is hard enough on it’s own, it’s damn near impossible with a 300-pound man right in your grill. Mahomes had to revert back to his baseball days and sling the ball out of there like he was throwing the first out of a double play.

The accuracy and velocity on this pass are incredible considering the circumstances. He knows he’s about to get walloped by the incoming Mebane, but he holds strong a delivers a strike to Hill.

Hill had some of his own wizardry on display here — outside of hitting the burners and leaving the entire Chargers defense in the dust for a long touchdown. In the time it takes for Mebane to reach Mahomes, Hill is already down the field at the perfect spot to catch this pass with plenty of room to run.

Hill is clearly their best offensive weapon right now, but they still have a ton of playmakers outside of him. Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and Sammy Watkins have all shown the ability to dominate games with big plays. Those three didn’t even produce that much in their season opener — they combined for 20 touches, 76 yards, and no touchdowns. The fact Kansas City was able to drop 38 points without the help of those three has to be terrifying for the rest of the AFC West.

If Mahomes can play at a similar level all season, the Chiefs should easily have one of the most productive offenses in football. They’re still sporting a Swiss cheese defense, so they’ll likely have to rely on their offense to carry the load for them.

After their first game, this seems more than possible — it even seems likely. Stopping this connection will be extremely difficult for defensive coordinators. Drawing up the perfect gameplan is nice, but very few defenses (if any) have the sheer athleticism on the backend to stop them completely.

Their best plan action might be blitzing to make life uncomfortable for Mahomes and pray that their defensive backs can hold up in man coverage. It’s going to be an extremely difficult task for NFL defenses for the rest of the season.

The Chiefs will have to rely on their howitzer-armed quarterback and speed demon wide receivers to make plays, to the delight of NFL fans everywhere. Buckle up, we still get at least 15 more games of this.
 

TTK

EX-Charger Fan
#14
You remind me of Bronco fans that thought that Cutler was better than Rivers.

Mahomes will not lead the NFL in passer rating this year as Alex Smith did the year before. In fact, I do not believe that Mahomes will ever lead the NFL in passer rating. He is simply not that accurate of a passer. The INTs are coming and I will be laughing at your Mahomes lovefest when they do.
More stat geek garbage.

Who gives a crap about leading the league in passer rating? That doesn't win you anything. How many rings does Alex Smith have?

I don't know what lofty expectations you think Mahomes should have in his first year starting but he just started the second game in his career. I don't expect him to play great all year. He's surely going to have his ups and downs as he's learning and he could have more downs than ups this year. Remember how many picks Peyton Manning threw in his first season starting? Mahomes is oozing with talent and potential though. That's what makes him fun and intriguing to watch right now.
 
#16
By the way, imagine still caring about Alex Smith's QB rating in 2018. He gets those ratings by being afraid of ever taking a risk or making a challenging throw - a style that simply does not work in the playoffs against real teams. He's the QB equivalent of all those college basketball programs that game the RPI.
Your statement is, frankly, absurd. I am not a fan of the Chiefs, but Smith played a great game against TEN in last season's playoffs. He led the Chiefs on 3 TD drives of greater than 75 yards, throwing 2 TDs in the process. The Chiefs win that game if any one of the following does not happen:

1. Jeff Triplette does make the idiotic forward progress call on the Mariota fumble in the second quarter.
2. The Chiefs do not allow Henry to rush all over them for 156 yards.
3. Butker does not miss his 48 yard FG attempt.
4. Mariota does not complete a fluke TD pass to himself.
5. Jeff Triplette does not call forward progress on the fumbled two-point conversion that would have been returned for two points for KC.

Basically, Alex Smith was the one thing that did go right for KC in that game as he went 24-33 for 264 yards and 2 TDs against his usual no INTs. Blaming Smith for that loss is idiotic.

Further, Smith had a high QB rating in 2017 for multiple reasons. He was 3rd in completion percentage (67.5%), 8th in passing yards (4,042), 2nd in YPA (8.00), 2nd in lowest INT% with 5 INTs in 505 passes thrown (throwing less than one INT for every 100 passes thrown), and he had a 26 TD to 5 INT ratio.

Mahomes will never lead the NFL in passer rating--never. He is far too inaccurate of a passer. He is going to have a lower completion percentage, which we can already see as is at 55.6% and he will throw more INTs than Smith. The Chargers missed a couple of picks last Sunday, but Mahomes will not be as lucky in every game.

By the way, Mahomes' 256 yard rate from week 1 would only put him basically at the same yardage as Smith for the whole season (between 4,000 and 4,100).
 

TTK

EX-Charger Fan
#18
Why do you always support your arguments with “what if’s”? Basically NOT FACTS?
Because there are no facts to support his arguments. He just manipulates stats and brings up hypotheticals to support his position.

And his argument on Mahomes is that if he doesn't play better than Smith in his first year vs Smith's 12th year, then he's a failure is hilarious.

I love how he can see a decade into the future after one game lol. Smith was deemed a bust for years and even now after some good seasons he still cannot shake the "game manager" tag.

What people are saying is that if Mahomes plays up to his talent and potential, he will be an elite QB. That's how goes he is. And Alex Smith is a good but not elite QB.
 

Harryo the K

Well-Known Member
#21
Patrick Mahomes college passing rate percentage was 63.5.

Philip Rivers college passing rate percentage was 63.6.

”He is far too inaccurate a passer.” Well, he might be right.
 
#22
Patrick Mahomes college passing rate percentage was 63.5.

Philip Rivers college passing rate percentage was 63.6.

”He is far too inaccurate a passer.” Well, he might be right.
I think that's how the stats game is supposed to be played.

(but be prepared for: "Yeah, but if Keke Coutee had not made those 3 great catches in Oklahoma, and if
Cameron Batson hadn't recovered from that knee injury so fast, to give Mahomes the unfair advantage
of a reliable safety valve receiver, then Rivers' superior passing rate would be more obvious! Swish!!"
)
 

TTK

EX-Charger Fan
#23
I also love our resident GM's analysis that Mahomes = Cutler just because they both have strong arms.

Maybe Chain = johnny spanii
 
#24
More stat geek garbage.

Who gives a crap about leading the league in passer rating? That doesn't win you anything. How many rings does Alex Smith have?

I don't know what lofty expectations you think Mahomes should have in his first year starting but he just started the second game in his career. I don't expect him to play great all year. He's surely going to have his ups and downs as he's learning and he could have more downs than ups this year. Remember how many picks Peyton Manning threw in his first season starting? Mahomes is oozing with talent and potential though. That's what makes him fun and intriguing to watch right now.
My position was and is that Mahomes will not do as well in 2018 as Smith did in 2017 in terms of passer rating (where Smith led the NFL) and in terms of protecting the ball (where Smith threw only 5 INTs in 505 pass attempts).

This was stated in response to a poster that said that Mahomes would make the Chiefs better, including better in 2018. My view is that Mahomes will be a downgrade in 2018 versus what Smith was in 2017. In large part because of that downgrade in 2018 and the loss of Peters, the Chiefs will not finish 2018 as strong in turnover differential as they did in 2017 and the Chiefs are not otherwise good enough to win the division without a significant positive turnover differential. As I have stated all along, the Chiefs have rolled out the red carpet for the Chargers to win the division.

You can certainly state that that discussion does not interest you, but since the same poster was talking crap again this week about Mahomes as if his entirely average performance proved anything relative to my position, it does seem appropriate for me to respond by stating what my actual position was from day 1 and that Mahomes will fall right on line with what I have predicted all along.

Week 1 was flukish in nature. As handicapper Preston Johnson recently stated in his analysis of this week's Chargers game, "It's also worth noting that the Chargers quietly outplayed the Chiefs everywhere in that game outside of the final score (outgained Kansas City 541 yards to 362, 33 first downs to 19, etc.)." No kidding. And that was without Bosa and Liuget and with a -2 turnover differential.

Of course Mahomes is going to have his ups and downs as he is learning just as you have stated. That is why he will not be as good as Smith was last year. There is no way that Mahomes sniffs only 1 INT per 100+ passes attempted. I would be floored if that were to happen. That is why the poster to whom I am responding is wrong in his take. I am glad that you get that point.

Finally, rings are 100% irrelevant in the determination of how good an individual player is. That is the single stupidest argument in all of sports. Philip Rivers is a Hall of Fame caliber QB and he has zero rings. Trent Dilfer was not a very good QB and he has a ring. How many rings does LaDainian Tomlinson have? Does Timmy Smith have a ring? Alex Smith led the NFL in passer rating in 2017 and did so because he was very good in multiple statistical categories in 2017. Being good in those multiple statistical categories is what proves that he was an excellent QB last year.
 
#25
Why do you always support your arguments with “what if’s”? Basically NOT FACTS?
You might try actually reading what I wrote so that you will not miss the cited facts the second time around.

Here are facts that I cited in the post that you ignored:

1. Smith threw 33 passes and completed 24 of them in last year's playoffs versus TEN.
2. Smith led the Chiefs on 3 TD drives of longer than 75 yards in that game.
3. Smith threw 2 TD passes.
4. Smith threw zero INTs.

This was stated in response to a post that took the idiotic position that Smith's style does not work in the playoffs. The reality is that Smith was getting the job done. It was his teammates that failed to get the job done. And Jeff Triplette had such a bad game officiating that he immediately announced his retirement following the game.

The position of the poster to whom I responded is crap and how Smith played, established by the facts I have cited both in my previous post and again in this one, proves that.

It is as if the poster is somehow blaming Smith for the Chiefs not winning when a pretty good argument could be made that Smith was at least one of the two best players (either the best or second best to Henry) on the football field in that game.

KC's actual problems against TEN are set forth in the additional facts implicit within the so-called "what ifs" that you are describing.

Here are the additional facts that explain why KC lost by one point:

1. KC allowed TEN to gain offensive momemtum by failing to stop Henry, who ran for 156 yards.
2. Referee Triplette butchered a call when he incorrectly ruled that Mariota's forward progress was stopped when he was sacked and fumbled, a fumble that was recorved by KC.
3. KC's kicker missed a 48 yard FG attempt.
4. TEN's Mariota completed a flukish batted pass for a TD to himself.
5. Referee Triplette prevented KC from scoring two points on TEN's two-point attempt when he again ruled a play over based upon forward progress on a play that resulted in a fumble plus what would have been a two point score from the recovery return for KC.

My discussion has included 9+ facts for you to consider in attempting to evaluate the argument of the one poster that stated that Smith's style does not work in the playoffs.

Do you see it now?
 
#26
Patrick Mahomes college passing rate percentage was 63.5.

Philip Rivers college passing rate percentage was 63.6.

”He is far too inaccurate a passer.” Well, he might be right.
Try not taking my posts out of context in order to deliberately misstate my position.

I stated that Mahomes is far too inaccurate of a passer to lead the NFL in passer rating. Assuming he does not get three freebie TD passes per game like last week, his passer rating is going to drop.

College completion percentages have nothing to do with it. Does the Big 12 have a reputation in terms of the defenses of its member teams? What is that reputation? And that is before we even get to the the differences in general between collegiate and NFL level talent.

Could you possibly attempt a more disingenuous argument?
 
#27
Because there are no facts to support his arguments. He just manipulates stats and brings up hypotheticals to support his position.

And his argument on Mahomes is that if he doesn't play better than Smith in his first year vs Smith's 12th year, then he's a failure is hilarious.

I love how he can see a decade into the future after one game lol. Smith was deemed a bust for years and even now after some good seasons he still cannot shake the "game manager" tag.

What people are saying is that if Mahomes plays up to his talent and potential, he will be an elite QB. That's how goes he is. And Alex Smith is a good but not elite QB.
What is even more hilarious and yet tragic at the same time is your inability to comprehend in the English language.

Never, not ever, not once have I ever said that Mahomes will be a "failure". I have stated (in response to another poster months ago) that Mahomes will not lead the NFL in passer rating in 2017 and that he will throw more INTs than Smith did last year assuming a similar number of passes thrown. And I have stated that those INTs will cost KC.

Mahomes will be fine as an NFL QB. He just will not be as good for KC this year as Smith was last year and I do not think Mahomes will ever lead the NFL in passer rating. Smith was an elite QB in 2017, which is typically how one gets to be the #1 rated passer in the NFL for a given season.

I have stated facts, tons of facts to the point that you have responded by referring to my posts as stat geek material and more stat geek material because there were so many stats (facts) cited. Then you simultaneously take the position that I have offered no facts. That is a pretty serious mental disconnect on your part. SMH....

Funniest of all is that there does not appear to be even one of you challenging my posts that can comprehend that my so-called "what if" or "hypothetical" statements also contain facts that actually happened that prove the point I am making. Triplette really did make the two calls I mentioned; Butker really did miss a 48 yard FGA; Henry really did run for 156 yards; and Mariota really did complete a batted pass to himself for a TD. That is not hypothetical. Those are facts. Those events really happened.
 

Harryo the K

Well-Known Member
#28
Here's a fun fact for Followers of the Holy Bolt. Feb 2017 before Stubby Year One and before the sellout stopped telling the truth.

Feb. 2017
The best-case scenario? The Chargers do what LaDainian Tomlinson suggested in October, when he said the team should trade Rivers to a contender, and San Diego hops on the bandwagon of whatever team RIvers joins.

“Let’s just call it what it is,” Tomlinson said on NFL Network. “The Chargers are rebuilding right now, OK? They’re rebuilding, guys. And Philip only has about three or four years left. If you keep him there during this rebuilding process, you just wasted his entire career. He will have no chance to win.

“So the best thing to do, possibly, is trade him. Get something for him right now. Trade him to a contender and let this man get a chance to win a championship. That way you still get something for him.”
 
Last edited:

Harryo the K

Well-Known Member
#29
Try not taking my posts out of context in order to deliberately misstate my position.

I stated that Mahomes is far too inaccurate of a passer to lead the NFL in passer rating. Assuming he does not get three freebie TD passes per game like last week, his passer rating is going to drop.

College completion percentages have nothing to do with it. Does the Big 12 have a reputation in terms of the defenses of its member teams? What is that reputation? And that is before we even get to the the differences in general between collegiate and NFL level talent.

Could you possibly attempt a more disingenuous argument?
In Philip Rivers first full year of playing (2006, 16 games) he had a passsing percentage rate of 61.2.
Lifetime he's at 64.1 percent. You have no ability to see or project where Mahomes will end up.
And as long the Chiefs get to the playoffs, which they will, he is automatcally as good as Smith.
 

TTK

EX-Charger Fan
#30
My position was and is that Mahomes will not do as well in 2018 as Smith did in 2017 in terms of passer rating (where Smith led the NFL) and in terms of protecting the ball (where Smith threw only 5 INTs in 505 pass attempts).

This was stated in response to a poster that said that Mahomes would make the Chiefs better, including better in 2018. My view is that Mahomes will be a downgrade in 2018 versus what Smith was in 2017. In large part because of that downgrade in 2018 and the loss of Peters, the Chiefs will not finish 2018 as strong in turnover differential as they did in 2017 and the Chiefs are not otherwise good enough to win the division without a significant positive turnover differential. As I have stated all along, the Chiefs have rolled out the red carpet for the Chargers to win the division.

You can certainly state that that discussion does not interest you, but since the same poster was talking crap again this week about Mahomes as if his entirely average performance proved anything relative to my position, it does seem appropriate for me to respond by stating what my actual position was from day 1 and that Mahomes will fall right on line with what I have predicted all along.

Week 1 was flukish in nature. As handicapper Preston Johnson recently stated in his analysis of this week's Chargers game, "It's also worth noting that the Chargers quietly outplayed the Chiefs everywhere in that game outside of the final score (outgained Kansas City 541 yards to 362, 33 first downs to 19, etc.)." No kidding. And that was without Bosa and Liuget and with a -2 turnover differential.

Of course Mahomes is going to have his ups and downs as he is learning just as you have stated. That is why he will not be as good as Smith was last year. There is no way that Mahomes sniffs only 1 INT per 100+ passes attempted. I would be floored if that were to happen. That is why the poster to whom I am responding is wrong in his take. I am glad that you get that point.

Finally, rings are 100% irrelevant in the determination of how good an individual player is. That is the single stupidest argument in all of sports. Philip Rivers is a Hall of Fame caliber QB and he has zero rings. Trent Dilfer was not a very good QB and he has a ring. How many rings does LaDainian Tomlinson have? Does Timmy Smith have a ring? Alex Smith led the NFL in passer rating in 2017 and did so because he was very good in multiple statistical categories in 2017. Being good in those multiple statistical categories is what proves that he was an excellent QB last year.
I don't know why you keep harping on the Alex Smith passer rating thing. I haven't seen one article or column that is praising Mahomes even go in this direction. The praise he is receiving is for his potential in the coming years, not this season.

As for last week's game, it definitely wasn't a fluke. They choked that game away in typical fashion. It's like groundhog day with this team. No matter how much talent they have on offense or defense, mental blunders and special teams will always kill them.
 

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