Mel Kiper's mock draft

DenverBolt67

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http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...701/2013-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-first-mock-draft

11
Eric Fisher
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan
AGE: 22
HT: 6-8
WT: 305
POS: OT

Analysis: The play of Philip Rivers over the past two seasons has raised a lot of questions about whether he really can be one of the best QBs in the league, but part of that is because he's simply not a QB who can thrive if he doesn't get adequate protection, and the San Diego offensive line simply hasn't done the job. Fisher is a tall player, but one that displays very good balance and isn't easily rattled by quickness or pass-rushers who can counter. He reminds you a little bit of Nate Solder, a left tackle who uses athleticism to handle the rush, and can drive effectively as a run-blocker.
 

The LBC

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Watching Senior Bowl practices today, Fisher definitely looked the part and is definitely going to see his stock climb. He was handling touted Texas DE Alex Okafor not in a manner I'd go so far as to call "with ease" but certainly without a great degree of difficulty.
 

Bolts4lyfe

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Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse: As the first junior to participate in the Senior Bowl -- thanks to early graduation -- Pugh has already made history at the event. But scouts want to see if he possesses the athleticism, body control and technical skill to man the left tackle spot as a pro. Pugh has been a model of consistency as a collegian and could jump into serious first-round consideration with a good week against elite competition.
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma: The buzz certainly is growing about Johnson's talent and potential as a future left tackle following a strong senior season. The Oklahoma standout held his own in games against quality opponents -- including Texas A&M DE Damontre Moore, widely projected to be a top-10 pick -- and his positional flexibility makes him a likely starter at the next level. Although his limited experience at the position is a concern, NFL scouts will certainly pin their hopes on his tremendous potential, if he performs well in drills this week.
 

Dublin Bolt

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Watching Senior Bowl practices today, Fisher definitely looked the part and is definitely going to see his stock climb. He was handling touted Texas DE Alex Okafor not in a manner I'd go so far as to call "with ease" but certainly without a great degree of difficulty.
Yeah I saw a tweet from someone saying he is looking better than Joeckel already!.
 

Bolts4lyfe

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I forget who it was, but someone was on Darren Smith's show this week and said he wouldn't be surprised to see Fisher jump in front of Joeckel come draft day
yeah many were saying that after senior bowl practices, I'd be happy with either guy, and Lane Johnson is another guy I'd really want if the first two were gone
 

Moses

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yeah many were saying that after senior bowl practices, I'd be happy with either guy, and Lane Johnson is another guy I'd really want if the first two were gone
My worry is now that Fisher's stock is higher than our #11 pick, and to be honest I'm not sold that Lane would represent good value at that spot. I guess it's early days though and we'll see more in the coming weeks, maybe Lane is better than I seem to think he is...
 

AnteaterRaider

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Frankly with the insane amount of helium that both Lane Johnson and Eric Fischer have right now, I'd be seriously studying Dallas Thomas or Oday Aboushi (sp?) if they could be considered reasonably capable to be a left tackle. Thomas especially I'm curious about since he was a pretty decent tackle at Tennessee
 

Bolts4lyfe

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Dallas Thomas is intriguing but I don't believe Aboushi can even play RT in the NFL. he was one that I was really unimpressed with in the SB. another player I'd consider later for RT is Louisiana Tech Jordan Mills
 

The LBC

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Dallas Thomas is intriguing but I don't believe Aboushi can even play RT in the NFL. he was one that I was really unimpressed with in the SB. another player I'd consider later for RT is Louisiana Tech Jordan Mills
The deal with Aboushi is he's not a Day-1-Ready prospect anywhere on the line. I've compared him favorably to the Giants' soon-to-be-FA Will Beatty as far as similar prospects go. He's a guy who has the potential and ceiling to be a starting LT in this league, but he needs the weight room something fierce, and he needs a relative overhaul of his technique because at present he can't run-block to save his life and he commits far to many stupid penalties due to lazy hand technique.

Another guy to consider, again more of a T/G tweener, but in a zone-scheme those guys can play RT quite well and can swing to LT in a pinch as a mid-round option is Kent State's Brian Winters. 32" arms aren't ideal, but the can be worked with. I'm not particularly fond of him as a permanent fixture at LT but as a RT I think he can fair just fine. Another former high school wrestler - which presents a skill set that translates particularly well to zone-blocking.

Another guy to keep an eye on as he has good tape (and was probably the lone bright spot on his team's entire offense), though he's a tad light (he has the frame to take a bit more, but he's very much a zone-only OT though he plays with the ferocity of a power-iso OT) is David Bakhtiari from Colorado.
 

Bolts4lyfe

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Here's to hoping some of these underclassman David Bakhtiari and Chris Faulk (I hear mix'd things on him some are really impressed, while others don't like him at all) can impress scouts this off season to show that Joeckel, Fisher, and Johnson aren't the only tackles in town.

Quick question: As far as BPA vs. Need where do you all stand?

For instance lets say (realistic scenario) we are sitting patiently at 11 no desire to move up or move back,
Loutelelei, Werner, Moore, Milliner, Joeckel, Fisher, etc. are gone

Leaving

C. Warmack
L. Johnson

or the next best defensive prospect still there
D.Jordan
E. Ansah (Ziggy)
B. Mingo (KeKe)

Who would you take?

Personally I would take Johnson only for 2 reasons, 1 being our huge need at LT/RT (depending on what happens to Gaither). 2 Being the drop off at the other spots is far less shallow than it is at LT

Sure Warmack may be the next best thing since Hutchinson (which I believe was said about DeCastro last year) but Cooper, Warmack, Bailey, Jones, Schwenke can be had later and are all very serviceable players

Defensively I would love to have a pass rusher be this years first pick but unfortunately this year we need protection for Rivers

3 things you positions of need to be successful in order

1 QB 2 LT 3 Pass rush

Okafor, Montgomery, Jones can all be had in the 2nd round
 
M

matilack

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I forget who it was, but someone was on Darren Smith's show this week and said he wouldn't be surprised to see Fisher jump in front of Joeckel come draft day
This happens to every prospect I want and we NEED. A few years ago Von Miller was a boarder line top 20 pick that I really wanted at 18....then the senior bowl, then the combine, then the pro day...he goes 2nd overall.

I would take Fisher over Joeckel only because I believe he offers more in the run game.
 

The LBC

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Here's to hoping some of these underclassman David Bakhtiari and Chris Faulk (I hear mix'd things on him some are really impressed, while others don't like him at all) can impress scouts this off season to show that Joeckel, Fisher, and Johnson aren't the only tackles in town.

Quick question: As far as BPA vs. Need where do you all stand?

For instance lets say (realistic scenario) we are sitting patiently at 11 no desire to move up or move back,
Loutelelei, Werner, Moore, Milliner, Joeckel, Fisher, etc. are gone

Leaving

C. Warmack
L. Johnson

or the next best defensive prospect still there
D.Jordan
E. Ansah (Ziggy)
B. Mingo (KeKe)

Who would you take?

Personally I would take Johnson only for 2 reasons, 1 being our huge need at LT/RT (depending on what happens to Gaither). 2 Being the drop off at the other spots is far less shallow than it is at LT

Sure Warmack may be the next best thing since Hutchinson (which I believe was said about DeCastro last year) but Cooper, Warmack, Bailey, Jones, Schwenke can be had later and are all very serviceable players

Defensively I would love to have a pass rusher be this years first pick but unfortunately this year we need protection for Rivers

3 things you positions of need to be successful in order

1 QB 2 LT 3 Pass rush

Okafor, Montgomery, Jones can all be had in the 2nd round
You're on the right track with the 3 premium positions, the next tier down from that is elite athlete receivers (I generally lump TE's and true wideouts all together here, because what I'm referring to in general are Height/Weight/Speed/Length combos that create mismatches on the field - i.e. too big for a corner not to get outmuscled by in single-cover, too quick for a LB or safety to man up on, etc), tall/long cover corners (length is just as important as height, and you can even give up a couple of inches in height if they have gorilla-type arms), and cover linebackers (this position very recently jumped a tier in my book because of the increased instances of ultra athletic TE's as primary targets in the league - New England, San Fran, New Orleans, to a lesser extent Green Bay).

I don't want to say it's moneyball, but the approach that the former scouts I've talked to all seem to take is that based upon the premium place on the tier the position is in, there is a premium/buffer given to the value of the player based upon that position (i.e. QB prospects who are viewed as legitimate "franchise" guys a team can build around are given, depending on the scouting department, a +15-20 pick premium). Thus a team may very well have a 2nd round grade on a guy, but they'll still make the reach for him in the mid-1st because the perceived value of the position justifies the reach.

Breaking things down even further, at each position in the top tier, value is almost always calculated with ceiling graded higher than floor (that is the guy with top flight potential but who are still rough around the edges will be at a higher premium than the guys who are polished but have a very visible ceiling that they may already be close to maxing out), especially now that rookie contracts are considerably cheaper than they used to be. And obviously the guys who have both high ceiling and high floor are the majority of your blue-chip prospects.

Based upon this approach, the BPA's we'd likely be looking at if there's no tackle worth the pick are Dion Jordan (he's by no means a finished product, but that kind of athleticism is premium), Zeke Ansah (again, that kind of athleticism can't be taught), and Dee Milliner (yes, from a tier below in terms of position premium, but also the best at his position in his class and matches "value meeting need" as well if not better than pass-rusher does in our case).
 
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M

matilack

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The idea of Joeckel going to KC is astoundingly stupid to me.

1. Albert is not a weakness, he's a solid LT who will likely be willing to give them a home town discount, but will not take LG or RT pay. To let him walk would only create a problem that doesn't need to be created.

2. QB?????? Whats the alternative? Trade/sign Alex Smith (bleh)? Trade a couple picks for Mallett? What happens when they pin their hopes on a raw prospect like Jones, Nassib, or Bray....then go 4-12....and have a chance to take someone like AJ McCarron, Teddy Bridgewater, or possibly an early declare of Johnny Manziel (he's arrogant enough).

I would be shocked if they don't take Geno. And I see Joeckel sliding, I have him going to Arizona at the earliest...and really they have a gigantic QB need themselves so you couldn't blame them for passing.
 

Bolts4lyfe

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The idea of Joeckel going to KC is astoundingly stupid to me.

1. Albert is not a weakness, he's a solid LT who will likely be willing to give them a home town discount, but will not take LG or RT pay. To let him walk would only create a problem that doesn't need to be created.

2. QB?????? Whats the alternative? Trade/sign Alex Smith (bleh)? Trade a couple picks for Mallett? What happens when they pin their hopes on a raw prospect like Jones, Nassib, or Bray....then go 4-12....and have a chance to take someone like AJ McCarron, Teddy Bridgewater, or possibly an early declare of Johnny Manziel (he's arrogant enough).

I would be shocked if they don't take Geno. And I see Joeckel sliding, I have him going to Arizona at the earliest...and really they have a gigantic QB need themselves so you couldn't blame them for passing.
Former Cardinals GM Rod Graves believes Kevin Kolb has starting-caliber ability, but the coaching staff needs to adapt to "what he's capable of doing."
Graves said if new coach Bruce Arians can get Kolb "to an area of comfort," the team may have its quarterback answer. Comfort is not a word often associated with Kolb. Both of Kolb's seasons with Arizona have been shortened by injury, and Arians has acknowledged the need to improve the pass protection. According to Graves, Arians will need to do a whole lot more for Kolb to succeed

I think they'll go Joeckel if he falls to them
 
M

matilack

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Former Cardinals GM Rod Graves believes Kevin Kolb has starting-caliber ability, but the coaching staff needs to adapt to "what he's capable of doing."
Graves said if new coach Bruce Arians can get Kolb "to an area of comfort," the team may have its quarterback answer. Comfort is not a word often associated with Kolb. Both of Kolb's seasons with Arizona have been shortened by injury, and Arians has acknowledged the need to improve the pass protection. According to Graves, Arians will need to do a whole lot more for Kolb to succeed

I think they'll go Joeckel if he falls to them
I mostly agree. That said what about Levi Brown? They gave him more money than we gave Gaither and he was put on IR before the season started...are they going to give up on him before he earns a single penny of that contract? Will they try to move him to RT over Bobby Massie? Or will they fill a massive need with Chance Warmack?

I think its about a 40-45% chance they go OT, they could certainly justify going elsewhere.

Its also worth mentioning that they will be over the cap come FA, so a spending spree unlikely.
 

Bolts4lyfe

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I mostly agree. That said what about Levi Jones? They gave him more money than we gave Gaither and he was put on IR before the season started...are they going to give up on him before he earns a single penny of that contract? Will they try to move him to RT over Bobby Massie? Or will they fill a massive need with Chance Warmack?

I think its about a 40-45% chance they go OT, they could certainly justify going elsewhere.

Its also worth mentioning that they will be over the cap come FA, so a spending spree unlikely.
True but they re-signed/restructured Brown's contract only because they were going to owe him 17 million from his rookie deal, only 8 million of his 30 million deal was guaranteed (which was paid) so it'll only cost them 850,000 if they cut him.

Although I never liked the trade and don't think Kolb was ever the answer for AZ, I still think he's they best thing they will have for right now. 4 out their 5 wins were when Kolb was under center and as soon as he got hurt so did their season
 
M

matilack

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True but they re-signed/restructured Brown's contract only because they were going to owe him 17 million from his rookie deal, only 8 million of his 30 million deal was guaranteed (which was paid) so it'll only cost them 850,000 if they cut him.

Although I never liked the trade and don't think Kolb was ever the answer for AZ, I still think he's they best thing they will have for right now. 4 out their 5 wins were when Kolb was under center and as soon as he got hurt so did their season
So basically you're saying they've already invested $8M before even taking a snap, and they'll only owe him $6M and change in 2013...which is a fair price for a decent left tackle in the NFL these days.

The only thing I could see them doing is going Joeckel or Fisher as a BPA type pick, and then moving Jones to RT.

http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/20...i-brown-starting-again-at-left-tackle-in-2013

Also sounds like they are happy with the improvement of Massie and Potter.
 

Bolts4lyfe

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Again The first 10 I see it going right now

KC either trading with AZ or grabbing Geno Smith

Jax finished last in sacks, Gus Bradley will make sure that doesn't happen again I see them going Bjoern Werner or best pass rusher available

Oak had a ton of issues last year and never had a pass rusher after Wimbley was cut due to cap space issues I see them getting one this year, making it first priority.

Phi if they in fact go into a 3-4 they need a run stopper plugging holes and drawing double teams, Star Loutelelei

Det
needs secondary help Dee Milliner

Cle
needs a pass rusher to help their 3-4 transition. Going QB this early will upset a lot of fans in Cleveland. I truly see them either bringing in a veteran to "help" or trading for Mallett. Lombardi has always expressed how much he liked the kid

AZ needs protection Luke Joeckel

Bills
will grab the QB they like best to work in their system

NYJ
I see them being the likeliest to get Alex Smith this off season leaving them in a situation to grab a pass rusher

Ten
will grab Warmack

Leaving us with Fisher:abq2:
 

Bolts4lyfe

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So basically you're saying they've already invested $8M before even taking a snap, and they'll only owe him $6M and change in 2013...which is a fair price for a decent left tackle in the NFL these days.

The only thing I could see them doing is going Joeckel or Fisher as a BPA type pick, and then moving Jones to RT.

http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/20...i-brown-starting-again-at-left-tackle-in-2013

Also sounds like they are happy with the improvement of Massie and Potter.
All that suggest is that Potter or Massie could play Guard

As I’ve said before, Levi Brown cannot handle the speed rush. This will not magically change. If you throw him back at LT, expect a ton more articles on how bad the Card’s offensive line is, and how their QBs are always injured.
Just by reading the title

All of my hopes and dreams were crushed in one fell swoop…

cut or trade Levi Brown…. he may have a little value


You got me, it must be April fools day

O wait, it’s not. That must mean that we went from one pack of fools that thought Levi Brown could play LT, to another group of fools that think he can play LT. Here’s the thing, he never has been able to. Brown lacks the kick step to deal with speed rushers on the outside
Good luck retaining your jobs if you’re going to latch you wagons to that horse fellas. (That’s my sweet way of saying I hope you’re looking for employment quickly!)

Just a small sample of that the fans think of Levi Brown
 
M

matilack

Guest
All that suggest is that Potter or Massie could play Guard

Just a small sample of that the fans think of Levi Brown
And yet what I was saying still remains the truth, he is a decent (not great) left tackle, making a fair paycheck, and they are happy with Massie at RT.

So they have a decision to make, and really it depends on if Arians wants to pin his first and probably only HC job on Kevin Kolb...I sure as heck wouldn't, but thats just me, he wouldn't be the first coach to get fired after 1 season. New coach almost always means new QB, and Arians owes no loyalty to Kolb, had they landed Andy Reid I may change that tune.

40-45% QB
40-45% OT
5-10% OG
 
M

matilack

Guest
Again The first 10 I see it going right now

KC either trading with AZ or grabbing Geno Smith

Jax finished last in sacks, Gus Bradley will make sure that doesn't happen again I see them going Bjoern Werner or best pass rusher available

Oak had a ton of issues last year and never had a pass rusher after Wimbley was cut due to cap space issues I see them getting one this year, making it first priority.

Phi if they in fact go into a 3-4 they need a run stopper plugging holes and drawing double teams, Star Loutelelei

Det needs secondary help Dee Milliner

Cle needs a pass rusher to help their 3-4 transition. Going QB this early will upset a lot of fans in Cleveland. I truly see them either bringing in a veteran to "help" or trading for Mallett. Lombardi has always expressed how much he liked the kid

AZ needs protection Luke Joeckel

Bills will grab the QB they like best to work in their system

NYJ I see them being the likeliest to get Alex Smith this off season leaving them in a situation to grab a pass rusher

Ten will grab Warmack

Leaving us with Fisher:abq2:
If Christian Ponder can go top 10, so can Matt Barkley.

KC - Geno Smith
JAX - DeMontre Moore
OAK - Bjoern Werner
PHI - Jarvis Jones (although I think they now need a different QB pretty badly with Chip Kelly coming in, I could see a draft and trade with KC for Geno not being out of the question)
DET - Dee Milliner
CLE - Star Lotulelei
ARI - Matt Barkley: He's not Luck obviously, but he is mobile, he plays in a pro style scheme at USC, and he has the arm strength to make all the throws. I think he has hope in the NFL, and as I said before Arians owes Kolb nothing except $13.5M if he decides to keep him...and less than half that if they cut him.
BUF - Tyler Wilson/Mike Glennon
NYJ - Barkevious Mingo
TEN - Kenny Vaccaro
SD - Eric Fisher :abq2:: Yes, over Luke Joeckel.

Obviously we can't predict trades, but I don't see any OT desperate teams moving into the top 10 from where they sit. The Giants never trade up, and the Bears don't have the ammo.
 
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Bolts4lyfe

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If Christian Ponder can go top 10, so can Matt Barkley.

KC - Geno Smith
JAX - DeMontre Moore
OAK - Bjoern Werner
PHI - Jarvis Jones (although I think they now need a different QB pretty badly with Chip Kelly coming in, I could see a draft and trade with KC for Geno not being out of the question)
DET - Dee Milliner
CLE - Star Lotulelei
ARI - Matt Barkley: He's not Luck obviously, but he is mobile, he plays in a pro style scheme at USC, and he has the arm strength to make all the throws. I think he has hope in the NFL, and as I said before Arians owes Kolb nothing except $13.5M if he decides to keep him...and less than half that if they cut him.
BUF - Tyler Wilson/Mike Glennon
NYJ - Barkevious Mingo
TEN - Kenny Vaccaro
SD - Eric Fisher :abq2:: Yes, over Luke Joeckel.

Obviously we can't predict trades, but I don't see any OT desperate teams moving into the top 10 from where they sit. The Giants never trade up, and the Bears don't have the ammo.
I see Philly taking EJ Manuel in the 2nd
 

The LBC

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True but they re-signed/restructured Brown's contract only because they were going to owe him 17 million from his rookie deal, only 8 million of his 30 million deal was guaranteed (which was paid) so it'll only cost them 850,000 if they cut him.

Although I never liked the trade and don't think Kolb was ever the answer for AZ, I still think he's they best thing they will have for right now. 4 out their 5 wins were when Kolb was under center and as soon as he got hurt so did their season
That's $850K in new money, but their cap take a massive rip if they cut him. He got a $7 million signing bonus, which if prorated evenly would mean he would have 4 unaccounted years of $1.4 million each (or $5.6 million total) plus that $850K (for a total of just over $6.4 million) that would count against the 2013 cap if he's cut. Mind you if left on the books, he's counting for exactly $6.4 million for 2013. So what you're suggesting is that they'd basically eat the same amount against their cap as they would were they to do nothing, except they won't get the added benefit of the man's play in return for that salary cap use.

The Cards also have Nate Potter who actually impressed when he was forced into the starting spot midway through the season. They're a team that needs interior line quality mostly. Now it's possible they draft an OT and kick Potter in to guard, but new HC's and new GM's largely translate to new QB's. Of course their former GM is going to defend Kevin Kolb... he was the one who traded for him - his name is likely forever going to be tied to the names Matt Leinart and Kevin Kolb. From what I've read about Steve Keim, he's a guy who didn't tend to agree with many of the moves made by Graves - and that's putting it nicely, as what I've read is that Keim was beyond irate when the entire scouting department would be in agreement to select a particular guy and then Graves would just go and write the other guy that he wanted on the draft card and turn it in.
 

Bolts4lyfe

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This is what I like to read

Arizona Cardinals GM Steve Keim believes it is "a little bit of a cop-out" to say the 2013 QB class is thin.
"Everybody likes to say it’s not as deep at certain positions, but I think if you have confidence in your system, you’re always able to find certain players at certain points in the draft who are value picks," Keim says. The Cardinals hold the seventh pick in the draft and might be considering one of the top quarterback names in this class.
 
M

matilack

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This is what I like to read

Arizona Cardinals GM Steve Keim believes it is "a little bit of a cop-out" to say the 2013 QB class is thin.
"Everybody likes to say it’s not as deep at certain positions, but I think if you have confidence in your system, you’re always able to find certain players at certain points in the draft who are value picks," Keim says. The Cardinals hold the seventh pick in the draft and might be considering one of the top quarterback names in this class.
Makes sense. I really like the idea of Matt Barkley with Bruce Arians, despite the USC quarterback stigma.
 

Bolts4lyfe

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My Chiefs' source, who has a high success rate of delivering Kansas City's first-round picks, told me Smith is currently the favorite to go No. 1 overall, but conceded that it's still too early in the process. He said that the combination of Joeckel and Tyler Wilson is also a strong possibility.
 

The LBC

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My guys that actually talk to pro scouts at various point throughout the year confirmed a while ago that both Tyler Wilson and Geno Smith were high on KC's board - granted this was prior to Pioli being canned but when it was widely accepted he was getting the ax.
 
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Bolts4lyfe

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My guys that actually talk to pro scouts at various point throughout the year confirmed a while ago that both Tyler Wilson and Geno Smith were high on KC's board - granted this was prior to Pioli being canned but when it was widely accepted he was getting the ax.
Along with Smith and Wilson I also hear Joeckel, Star and one that really stood out a little surprisingly was Milliner. Obviously they wouldn't take him number 1 but it'll be interesting if they plan to move back for him.
I can see a scenario where they move back grab Milliner and move back up into the first for Wilson if of course he's still available.
 
M

matilack

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Along with Smith and Wilson I also hear Joeckel, Star and one that really stood out a little surprisingly was Milliner. Obviously they wouldn't take him number 1 but it'll be interesting if they plan to move back for him.
I can see a scenario where they move back grab Milliner and move back up into the first for Wilson if of course he's still available.
Yeah I really really doubt they go Joeckel #1. I bet you they will try desperately to trade out of the pick, try to get a coup to move back a few spots like the Rams did last year....but they are going to be incredibly disappointed because nobody is going to trade them 3 first round picks to get Geno.