Kentucky Derby

[handoverfist]

145th edition of the Kentucky Derby will be run in Louisville, Kentucky on the world famous Churchill Downs race track today.
Of course I'm biased, but to me, the race is really "the most exciting 2 minutes in sports"....well, likely to be 2:03 2/5 !!!
I've followed the derby ever since I can remember and have had some success picking winners in the past.....most recently; American Pharoah (2015), and Animal Kingdom (2011)...I also had 3 in a row starting with Monarchos (2001), War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003)...Obviously, I've had my share of losers too; some of whom came back to do well in the other legs of the Triple Crown...Louis Quatorze (1996) comes to mind; after running 16th in the derby, I bet him again (9 to 1 odds) in the Preakness, where he set the track and stakes record, winning easily!

This years Kentucky Derby is wide open! There is no prohibitive favorite, and Omaha Beach, and Haikal ( two of the likely favorites) have been late scratches from the race; so, if you're lucky enough to be able to pick a winner, you should be handsomely rewarded!

There's a ton of information on the net, but https://www.kentuckyderby.com/ is a good source. https://www.horseracingnation.com/content/free_past_performances_pps should give you the past performances of all the runners.

Even when there's value in betting favorites, I tend to try to break the bank, so I'm going with what should be a huge longshot......Spinoff!!!

Good Luck to any of you who may watch or wager on the race, and I'd like to hear your thoughts.

 

[SDRay]

Thanks for the post handoverfist. I don’t follow horse racing much but I’m tuning in for the derby today.

 

[handoverfist]

WOW!!!
They keep doing "first time, in long time" stuff, but this one was first time EVER!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1124818237311655937

After American Pharoah won the triple crown for the first time since Affirmed (1978); and Justify (2018) broke the Apollo (1882) curse of winning the derby, unraced as a two year old; now we have our first Disqualification winner EVER!

To be honest, I didn't see the infraction when I was watching it live, but after the claim of foul and the replays, I was sure Maximum Security was coming down. I even predicted that he would be placed behind the 1 or the 18 horse, which would put him right out of the money. The horse was clearly much the best in that field, but the move at the top of the stretch was so egregious that, imho even though he probably still would win the race if he didn't interfere, he did cost War Of Will (1) and Long Range Toddy (18) a chance to finish in the money; and according to longstanding racing protocols, he was correctly taken down and placed behind Long Range Toddy.
HOWEVER!!! anyone who's watched the Kentucky Derby long enough, has seen more than their share of bumps and mishaps...in a 20 horse field, with young, in-experienced, high-strung male horses, there are always multiple, legitimate claims of foul that COULD be looked into, but unless a jockey stabs his rivals with a knife, they're always overlooked. So even though I agree that the interference warranted disqualification in any other race, I don't believe the decision is consistent with how THIS race has been viewed by the stewards in the past 145 years!......WHY?
In a sport that is dominated by "blue-bloods", both human and equine, Maximum Security and his trainer are anything but! Max Security's path to the Kentucky Derby was nothing short of a true Cinderella Story. His breeding is modest at best, and certainly not indicative of his ability on the track. Very rarely do you see a serious derby contender start his/her racing career as a "Claimer" - races where horses are offered for sale - but Max Security's first 3 career races where in claiming races, against horses that will one day be ridden by little kids in country fairs! Of course he would go on to destroy those weaker fields, however in his forth career race, he beat a very talented field that included Code of Honor in the Florida Derby to stamp his ticket to the "Run for the Roses". His trainer, Jason Servis is as anti-establishment as you can get in the Sport of Kings. He and his more famous brother John (Smarty Jones) are viewed as West Virginia hicks by the establishment trainers, and have a reputation for cheating. Jason Servis thumbed his nose at the Kentucky Jockey Club by not attending Post Position Draw, and working out his horse in outrageously slow times leading up to the race. I have to wonder how the decision would've gone, had it been one of Bob Baffert's horses with royal bloodlines.
It's also worth noting that I hear Vegas won big with the disqualification.
Regardless, the horse showed me some serious moxie and he should be able to atone for his mistake in the shorter (1 3/16M) Preakness at Pimlico in 2 weeks...the only tragedy here would be if the horse ends up winning the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, and was shortchanged out of a Triple Crown by DQ!

 

[Gill Man]

Yeah just read the story. Did not see the race. Here is another article about the historic decision to DQ the winner:
http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/26672380/what-world-happened-2019-kentucky-derby
The background you supply HOF is interesting. Sounds like they were lucky there was not a major accident with 2 horses going down and who knows how many others? But as you say, the KD is not judged traditionally like other less prominent races and for good reason, there's too much riding on it ( no pun intended). This had a huge affect on Vegas. And I'd really wonder too about how much a horse's trainer's standing would affect the decision to make that DQ stand. Just reading about the history of it all makes me inclined to call bullshyte.

Horseracing is already under the microscope for all the deaths of horses at Santa Anita. Now this race filled with what would appear to be a political and highly questionable DQ decision. I'd bet all that KD money that Bob Baffert's horses would never have been given a DQ there.

Meh, used to love horse racing for the spectacle but now I'm really one of the ones opposed to putting horses thru that for the entertainment and gambling enjoyment of humans. Ridiculous sport they oughta ban it just as they oughta ban the Iditarod. Cruelty to animals. JMHO.

 

[DFWBoltFan]

In the close up video, you can clearly see the lead horse Maximum Security drift into the lane of a horse behind him, almost causing that horse and it's jockey to trip and fall down. The jockey said when they came around the bend, the noise of the crowd startled his horse and caused him to move into another lane, but he quickly guided the horse back into his own lane. So whether it was intentional, or simply a startled horse, nobody knows. I don't agree with changing the results of the race as Maximum Security was clearly the fastest horse across the line.

But I won $100 on the the show while enjoying some Mint Juleps, so it's all good. Thank you Code of Honor!

PS - imagine there were some happy people who picked Country House to win at 65-1 odds!!

 

[Gill Man]

Well here's an article that argues FOR the disqualification. I don't think I agree, and notice much of the commentary they utilize to support their argument comes from the onwers/trainers of the 2 horses that benefited LOL.
https://sports.yahoo.com/why-disqua...tucky-derby-was-the-right-call-192228119.html

As is usual someone has an axe to grind and their bias causes their argument to be skewed. I'm not buying this one. Fastest horse was denied a victory and agree with HOF that it never would have happened if it had been a Baffert owned horse that did the exact same thing. Now if horses had actually fallen and been hurt, maybe yes, but that did not happen thankfully.

And ironically the owner of the horse that won is stating they aren't exactly happy about having to be shamed into running the Preakness as they had planned on skipping it. Nice. No Triple Crown winner this year. The KD winner is obviously just happy to have been handed a victory. History made by the DQ and history made as that is probably the least deserving winner in KD history as well. SMH.

 

[Lance19]

...after the claim of foul and the replays, I was sure Maximum Security was coming down. I even predicted that he would be placed behind the 1 or the 18 horse, which would put him right out of the money. The horse was clearly much the best in that field, but the move at the top of the stretch was so egregious that, imho even though he probably still would win the race if he didn't interfere, he did cost War Of Will (1) and Long Range Toddy (18) a chance to finish in the money; and according to longstanding racing protocols, he was correctly taken down and placed behind Long Range Toddy.
HOWEVER!!!

...and if there were a rule that said, in essence:
"Officiating of the Kentucky Derby, given it's history, will not operate by the standard rules"
then I think the Gary West/Maximum Security camp would have a legit argument.

But since no such rule exists, the stewards are compelled to enforce the rules as they do exist. I can't pretend to be offended at this.

 

[handoverfist]

...and if there were a rule that said, in essence:
"Officiating of the Kentucky Derby, given it's history, will not operate by the standard rules"
then I think the Gary West/Maximum Security camp would have a legit argument.

But since no such rule exists, the stewards are compelled to enforce the rules as they do exist. I can't pretend to be offended at this.

Considering I had neither horse, I'm not offended by any of it. It's jut one more moment to add to thousands of other such moments that being involved with horse racing has provided me the chance to witness. With horse racing, just when you think you've seen it all, they throw some thing that, quite literally, no one has ever seen before! I mean, I don't claim to have seen all 145 runnings - would have to refer to HarryO for that - but I've seen every Kentucky Derby since 1973 (Secretariat) live, and on tape dating back to 1964 (Northern Dancer); and I can think of dozens of horses (some great ones) that were bumped out of contention right out of the gate. The race, which is often run in slop, is a grueling test for, essentially equine babies, many of whom have yet to fully mature, and there's always racing luck involved in 20 horse field; so hard bumps, clipped heels, and even spills are not uncommon in the Derby. What is uncommon -unprecedented- is to have a winner who looked like he could go around the track one more time and not get passed, be taken down by a claim of foul. The eventual winner, Country House, in my opinion, was not bothered by the interference in anyway, and had no business launching a claim of foul, as his progress was never impeded by the actions of Mad Max. His trainer, Hall of Famer Bill Mott, in a way launched an inquiry on behalf of horses he did not train to improve the position of his horse. War of Will was the one that got the worst of it, and neither his trainer, nor his jockey lodged a claim of foul. The horse itself, tried his best to catch up to Max Security with the full stretch to go, and like 19 others.....couldn't! Long Range Toddy's jockey who got sandwiched between War of Will and Country House, decided to shut the horse down and joined the claim of foul much later, which caused the delay in posting the official results.

Anyway, this all just added a new wrinkle to the Preakness picture in a couple of weeks. The Pimlico race track is well suited to Maximum Security's running style and he would've learned from his experience at the Derby, so this time there will be no excuses!

 

[Lance19]

Maximum Security probably was the best horse that day.
But you still have to win by the rules.
Doesn't matter to me who lodged the complaint, if its valid.

I would have zero problem with them drafting a rule that says the KD should be officiated differently than other races.

 

[handoverfist]

Maximum Security probably was the best horse that day.
But you still have to win by the rules.
Doesn't matter to me who lodged the complaint, if its valid.

I would have zero problem with them drafting a rule that says the KD should be officiated differently than other races.

Not to belabor the issue, but even though I have no problem with anything you said in your posts, as a cynical sports fan who enjoys what little purity there is left in sports, I'm afraid that this is going to set a precedence for future Derby outcomes to be decided in a video booth rather than the track.

I remember when Roy Jones Jr. lost his first fight. After beating every body from middle to light heavy weight; the likes of Bernard Hopkins, James Toney, Vinny Pazzienza...he suffered his first defeat in the ring in the hands of Montell Griffin. In a close fight, while ahead on all cards, he knocked Griffin down twice in the 9th round, the second time Griffin took a knee, and since the referee didn't jump in fast enough, Jones hit him twice when he was down. He was disqualified and lost his title. They raised Griffin's hand as he was carried out of ring on a stretcher. Jones knocked Griffin out five months later in the first round to regain his title.

 

[handoverfist]

The Preakness is being run at Pimlico on Saturday. No Country House, no Maximum Security, no chance of a triple crown this year. The field of 13 will be headed by Improbable -trained by Bob Baffert, finished 5th, placed 4th in KD- and War of Will -trained by Canadian Mark Casse, finished 8th, placed 7th in KD. WoW of course, is the horse that was poised to make a move on the outside of Maximum Security in the derby final turn and was bumped badly by the winner, causing the disqualification. WinWinWin, and Bodexpress are the only other derby horses to show up for this race, which means there are some fresh horses that skipped the derby here. Chief among them should be Bourbon War, an impeccably bred colt out of top sire Tapit. I probably would've bet this horse, had it shown up at the derby, but he's definitely worth a look here. Other newcomers also have a chance, as this is widely considered to be a weak field for a race of this magnitude. You can find free Past Performances here: https://www.horseracingnation.com/content/free_past_performances_pps

I'm going with Bourbon War on top of Improbable and WoW with ALL for third on a Trifecta....Good Luck with your selections!

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

Does the Preakness have anything cool about it like the Derby does?

 

[handoverfist]

Does the Preakness have anything cool about it like the Derby does?

It is the second jewel of the US triple crown and has been run for 144 years at the same track in Baltimore, Maryland. Much like the Kentucky Derby, they have the 3 year old Fillies race on Friday (today) called the Black Eyed Susan. But the main race on Saturday for the 3 yr old boys (open to fillies) is a spectacle of fancy hats on ladies, and Black-eyed Susans -the drink and the flower- and the traditional singing of "Maryland, My Maryland".
I've never been to the Kentucky Derby, but I've been to Pimlico for the Preakness and although it's not the Kentucky Derby, it's just as steeped in tradition and holds it's own against any other day in racing.

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

It is the second jewel of the US triple crown and has been run for 144 years at the same track in Baltimore, Maryland. Much like the Kentucky Derby, they have the 3 year old Fillies race on Friday (today) called the Black Eyed Susan. But the main race on Saturday for the 3 yr old boys (open to fillies) is a spectacle of fancy hats on ladies, and Black-eyed Susans -the drink and the flower- and the traditional singing of "Maryland, My Maryland".
I've never been to the Kentucky Derby, but I've been to Pimlico for the Preakness and although it's not the Kentucky Derby, it's just as steeped in tradition and holds it's own against any other day in racing.

You had me at fancy hats and signature drink. Hopefully the Blackeyed Susan is better than the Mint Julip. Go horsies.

 

[handoverfist]

Well folks, with no live sports anywhere in the world, our equine athletes are still taking to the tracks and running races with no live audience in the stands!

The Kentucky Derby has been postponed from the first Saturday in May, to Sept. 5th. However, most of the preps for the big race are being run as scheduled, with Louisiana and Tampa Bay Derbies having been run in the past two weeks.

Tomorrow, The Florida Derby will be run on the Gulfstream Race Course. The race has produced several Kentucky Derby Champions and should serve as the main indicator for the state of 3 year old males racing in the East Coast. The following is a good article on the favorite to win the race, Tiz the Law...

Tiz the Law favored in $750,000 Florida Derby

Tiz the Law favored in $750,000 Florida Derby #KYDerby

www.kentuckyderby.com

and this site will provide free past performances:

Horse Racing Nation

Get free horse racing past performances here! Every day racing + Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown & more!

www.horseracingnation.com

 

[handoverfist]

The 13 horse field has seen 4 scratches so the runner list is currently:

1- As Seen on TV
2- Shivaree
3- Scratch-X
4- X
5- Gouverneur Morris
6- X
7- Tiz the Law
8- My First Grammy
9- Independence Hall
10- Candy Tycoon
11- X
12- Ete Indien
13- Rouge Element


I was intrigued by No. 5 Gouverneur Morris, a nice looking 3 yr old colt out of Constitution (Tapit), from an Unbridled Song mare.
When I looked further in to the name I found this:

Gouverneur Morris - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The horse was supposed to run at 8 to 1 in the morning line...but the scratches, along with the fact that it's trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Johnny V., with huge ownership connections will bring down the odds....I'm still going to bet it at 5 to 1 or higher!

Why don't you guys check out the race - more information in the previous post- and tell me what you like....just for shits and giggles!
I'll try to find a site that will show the race live.

 

[handoverfist]

Should be able to get a live feed here:

Live Stream | World-Class Thoroughbred Horse Racing | Gulfstream Park

Live Stream | Live World-Class Thoroughbred Horse Racing | Gulfstream Park | Live Video | 901 S Federal Hwy, Hallandale Beach, FL 33009 | 954-454-7000

www.gulfstreampark.com

 

[handoverfist]

Tiz the Law wins Fla. Derby before empty stands

With fans not allowed at Gulfstream, Tiz the Law won Saturday's Florida Derby to stamp himself as a prime Kentucky Derby contender if the rescheduled race goes off as planned in early September.

www.espn.com

 

[handoverfist]

The Arkansas Derby is running in two Divisions on Saturday. That would normally be the day that the Kentucky Derby -now moved to Sept.5th- would be run in Louisville; instead, 22 of the top 3 year olds in the country will be running in races 11 and 13 at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas.

My horse for the previously mentioned Florida Derby, Gouverneur Morris, is running in the first Division or Race 11, and has drawn the post position 4. He ran a credible 4th in the FLA Derby, and showed me enough to give him another shot in the ARK Derby.

If anyone is interested, more information is available online form sources like horseracingnation.com, and I will try to post another update closer to race time.

 

[handoverfist]

Ok, I've had time to look at the Past Performances on the two 11 horse fields.

In the 1st Div. which is run in Race 11 at Oaklawn Park, I'm comfortable with my pick #4 Gov. Morris. I think the race sets up well for him to come off the pace and catch the #1 horse Charlatan, for a 4 - 1 exactor. The other intriguing horses in the race are #8 Anneau d'Or, and #11 Basin.

The 2nd Div. -race 13- #5 Nadal stands out as an unbeaten colt with a precocious pedigree; however the the odds may make betting against him a better prospect than betting on him. # 10 Farmington Road can come from way back to give trainer Todd Pletcher the double as he also trains The Gov.! Other horses that are worth a look are # 11 Wells Bayou, and #8 Fast Enough.

Good luck!

 

[handoverfist]

Well, it's good to know that after all this time, with all that's been going on in the world, I still haven't lost my touch!

I can't pick winners if my life depended on it!!

Bob Baffert won both Divisions with the favorites Charlatan, and Nadal! The Gov. ran 3rd in the 1st Div.!!

 

[handoverfist]

Both Baffert horses are undefeated, and won impressively; but Charlatan that won the first race looks like a special horse!

Bob Baffert's Charlatan wins first division of Arkansas Derby 2020

Bob Baffert's Charlatan dominates the first division of the Arkansas Derby to win 100 Road to the Kentucky Derby points.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[handoverfist]

Well, what did anyone expect from a horse named Charlatan?...
Doping is a growing concern in a sport that survives on betting, but the punishments for such infractions don't match the severity of the damage they inflict on the sport, and the rewards far outweigh the risk of getting caught.

Reports: 2 horses trained by Baffert fail drug tests

Two horses from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert, including a top contender for the Belmont Stakes, have tested positive for the banned substance lidocaine, according to multiple reports.

www.espn.com

Lidocaine is considered a Class 2 drug by the Association of Racing Commissioners International, and use of it carries a penalty of a 15-to-60-day suspension and a fine of $500 to $1,000 for a first offense, the Times said. Without mitigating circumstances, a horse would be disqualified and would forfeit its purse. Charlatan earned $300,000 for first place in the Arkansas Derby.

 

[handoverfist]

On Nov. 5 & 6th, Del Mar Racetrack is hosting the biggest yearly event in horseracing...The Breeders Cup.

Breeders Cup is a relatively new format (started in 1984) where qualified horses from all over the world come to compete in their specialty at a host track in US (in 1996 it was in Toronto's Woodbine Racetrack). This years version has attracted over 150 horses from 14 countries, that will compete the 2 day event comprising of 14 races, for a total purse of $31M. The horses qualify for these races based on their age, gender, surface preference (dirt or grass), and distance preference; culminating with the Breeders Cup Classic (1 1/4 Mile on Dirt).

Breeders Cup

The Breeders Cup World Championships

www.breederscup.com