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Fantasy FF take on Rivers

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football Talk' started by TheLash, Dec 7, 2006.

  1. TheLash

    TheLash Well-Known Member

    Aug 8, 2006
    A couple interesting observations on Rivers and this weeks matchup from a fantasy football perspective. I was doing some research since he's QB on my team Groinpull.

    Bringin' the Noise: Rolling Rivers
    Bringin' the Noise: Rolling Rivers

    By Brad Evans
    December 7, 2006

    Steele: Rudy, are you ready champ?
    Rudy: I've been ready for this my whole life.
    Steele: Then you take us out on the field.

    Tatum Bell, Den, RB – Opponent: at SD
    Fearless Forecast: 18 carries, 69 YDs
    Notes: The feeling a night owl gets after digesting multiple chili cheese burritos is what Taco Tatum will inflict on his backers in Week 14. The return of Mohawk juicer Shawne Merriman last week provided a much needed jolt to a run defense that had become susceptible. Led by Merriman's six tackles, the Bolts limited Willis McGahee to a meager 26 yards on 16 carries. Taco missed the Week 11 clash with their division rival as the Broncos stampeded for 158 rushing yards and two touchdowns. With hole-plugger Luis Castillo possibly back this week from a high ankle sprain, the Chargers are a much more formidable foe this time around. Trust Taco only as a flex option.

    Javon Walker, Den, WR – Opponent: at SD
    Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 50 YDs
    Notes: The rookie's rough edges cuts Walker like a knife. Experts, including this one, jumped too quickly on the Jay Cutler bandwagon. The youngster clearly showed his inexperience under the spotlight as he made numerous misreads and arrant throws. Walker has failed to surpass the 70-yard mark in four straight and has crossed the chalk only once since Week 10. Conservative play calling by Mike Shanahan, Cutler's misgivings and a revitalized San Diego defense at home, are a disastrous fantasy mix for one of the league's most gifted wideouts. Until Cutler's confidence grows, Walker should be considered bench fodder in shallow leagues.

    What the heck is wrong with Phillip Rivers? He doesn't play well against weaker defenses where he should put up great numbers (i.e. Cleveland and Oakland). The guy drives me crazy!

    – Larry, Warner Robins, GA

    Noise: Rivers inconsistent fantasy production reminds me of Eva Green (Latest Bond girl). Sometimes she looks hot. Other times, she's not worth the price of a shaken, not stirred, apple martini.

    Undoubtedly, Rivers, like Eva, is a fantasy two-face. When he's good, he's good. And when he's bad, well, he's stick-your-head-in-a-Super-Bass-O'Matic-76 bad.

    In order to fully understand the Rivers rollercoaster you have to separate the positive from the negative.

    When Rivers has raged …
    WK 2, Ten: 235 YDs, TD
    WK 5, Pit: 242 YDs, 2 TD, INT
    WK 6 at SF: 334 YDs, 2 TDs
    WK 7 at KC: 266 YDs, 2 TDs, INT
    WK 8, StL: 206 YDs, TD
    WK 10, at Cin: 338 YDs, 3 TDs
    WK 11, at Den: 222 YDs, 2 TDs, 2 INT

    When Rivers has calmed …

    WK 1, at Oak: 108 YDs, TD
    WK 4, at Bal: 145 YDs, TD, INT
    WK 9, Cle: 211 YDs
    WK 12, Oak: 133 YDs, INT
    WK 13, at Buf: 160 YDs, TD

    Excluding Baltimore, the reason why Rivers simmered in a handful of games this year was due to Marty-ball. Oakland and Cleveland have performed admirably in pass defense this season, but have been spanked by the run. In those contests (and in Buffalo), Schottenheimer clearly wanted to establish a ground attack to take advantage of his opponents' weakness at the cost of Rivers end-game results. LT averaged a combined 24.5 attempts, 137.6 yards and totaled eight touchdowns in those five games. In fact, three of those contests (at Oak, at Bal, at Buf) are the only games this season in which LT has carried the ball 26 times or more. With Denver, Kansas City, Seattle and Arizona remaining, its clear Marty-Ball will likely take a back seat. Unlike the Raiders and Browns, each team can be exploited by the pass.

    Based on his schedule, Rivers should average around 220 yards and total 1-2 scores per game from here on out. He won't single-handedly guide you to gridiron gold, but he will be a key piece to the puzzle if your squad has two top-quality backs. If not, my playoff aspirations, like yours, will drown with him.

    Brad Evans has been a fantasy addict since the days when grunge rock ruled radio. Formerly of TalentedMrRoto.com, he has written professionally and hosted his own weekly radio show covering various aspects of fantasy baseball, football, and college basketball for the past three years. You can listen to Brad regularly on Fox Sports Radio Network. Send him a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.

    Updated on Thursday, Dec 7, 2006 11:38

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