Analysis: Will Padres manager Andy Green return in 2020? Stay tuned

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SDRay

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Around this time last year, Padres Executive Chairman Ron Fowler gave an emphatic assurance that manager Andy Green’s job was not in jeopardy.

Given that same opportunity this month, Fowler declined to discuss the matter.

Multiple sources in the organization, speaking on the condition they not be identified, said Green’s status, among other personnel decisions, will be addressed at the end of the season.

Why the delay?


The best answer seems to be in the Padres’ decision makers’ desire to be deliberate in thoroughly examining the team’s condition and potential in the face of numerous factors that make numbers essentially meaningless at this point in time.

That is a Greenism. He says “at this point in time” multiple times a day in his meetings with the media. The qualifier covers him and the organization, allowing for changes in plans without it appearing he had been misleading.

This particular point in time is a crucial one for the Padres and, thus, their chief decision makers.

Whoever the Padres manager is in 2020 — and there are hints from within that it will end up being Green — he will be charged with winning from the start. If it is Green wearing brown and gold, he will essentially begin the year on the hot seat.


Next season is when the Padres expect to push open their window of contention. That means wins and losses will be the only barometer of success.

That has not been the case in any of Green’s four seasons.

The Padres enter the season’s penultimate homestand, beginning Friday against the Rockies, at 64-75. They will miss the playoffs for the 13th consecutive season. They need to go 17-6 to avoid equaling a franchise record with a ninth straight losing season. They could lose all but three of their final 23 games and still finish with a better record than last season.

Again, not that the record matters.

Fowler, General Manager A.J. Preller and General Partner Peter Seidler said from the moment Manny Machado was signed in February that the goal was to win this season — with the realistic underpinning the Padres were a young team still in transition.

They were adamant they would not leverage a remote chance to win now for what they believe is a more assured chance of significant success beginning in 2020.

In assessing whether they will pay Green for two years of doing nothing — his contract runs through the 2021 season — they know they must look at themselves as well.

First off, while Green does have more in-game latitude than some managers in this data-driven age, he makes almost no decisions unilaterally. Determinations of which players are on the roster and, to some extent, how much and where some of them play are made in concert with Preller and the personnel department.


Second, the front office did nothing to make the current roster better at midseason, choosing instead to send away a player who had hit 27 home runs and was extremely popular in the clubhouse for a prospect. (That is not an indictment of the acquisition of Taylor Trammell, now their second-ranked prospect, nor the jettisoning of Franmil Reyes. It is a statement of fact.)

Now they have to decide whether to sacrifice Green after his four seasons overseeing an overhaul.

Preller and the two principal owners have to look back at the start to the season, when the Padres spent all but 16 of the first 90 games at .500 or better.

There appears to be an acknowledgment internally of the challenge they saddled Green with a young six-man starting rotation that often didn’t have a sixth man and for a time had two pitchers with workload limits. That circumstance as much as anything had virtually everyone in the organization privately conceding all along the ceiling was perhaps somewhere around .500 in 2019.

The reality is that the three-headed brain trust, with input from others in the organization and with Preller as perhaps the most crucial voice given that he works most closely with Green, has to make its decision amid the blurry context of a roster that has devolved back in the direction of a developmental squad.

It is not insignificant to note that in his justification last September regarding Green’s continued employment, Fowler referred to the fact the Padres coaching staff was being asked to instill organizational tenets in players on the fly.

“It’s very difficult to deliver that message at the major league level,” Fowler said.

There was less of that going on this year. But there remain a number of players who sped through a minor league system that has undergone a significant overhaul of its development staff.


One of the judgments being determined regards Green’s ability to relate to — and therefore teach and lead — players. A significant part of Green’s maturation as a manager, several people have said, has been his improvement in communicating with the various personalities on his staff and his team.

Players have always complimented Green on his attempts to keep them apprised of their roles. Several said the manner in which he communicates has improved and they feel like his understanding of their needs has grown.

Disagreements between Green and Preller that have arisen due to the strong personalities involved and difference in opinions on certain matters aren’t seen as necessarily a bad thing. Internal conflict is often a byproduct of the creative process and exists to some extent in virtually every organization, multiple team and league sources have explained.

In 2017, when the Padres extended Green’s contract by three years through the 2021 season, it was with the intent he would be the one to shepherd the team not only through the desert but into the promised land.

“It speaks to the big picture of what we’re in the process of creating as an organization — hire good people and get stability,” Preller said then. “It speaks to the notion of Andy growing with us as we’re in this building phase and then into the winning phase, him being the guy that can wear a lot of hats. He’s the guy who can relate to young players putting on a development hat, and he’s also a guy over the next years as we are competitive who gives us an advantage as we start to win championships.”

Fowler at the time termed speculation Green was a sort of chaperon for the youngest team in the majors until it matured and was ready to win as “B.S.”

The white knight does sometimes get to ride in after some poor schlep fronted the hopeless years.

The Astros went through three managers in six seasons before A.J. Hinch was hired as manager for their current run of success, which included winning the 2017 World Series.

Four managers in five seasons led up to Joe Maddon being hired to manage the Cubs in 2015, the year they went to the National League Championship Series and one year before they won their first World Series title in 108 years.

There are also recent examples of teams sticking with managers through lean times.

Terry Collins managed the Mets in four losing seasons leading up to their 2015 run to the World Series.

The team that beat the Mets that year, the Royals, hired Ned Yost in 2011 when their long rebuild was underway. The Royals won 71 and 72 games in his first two seasons, 86 in his third and then advanced to two straight World Series.

A top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, an offensive outfielder and a catcher are on the Padres’ offseason to-do list.

Right after they decide in which of the above catego
 

Gill Man

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That report makes all kinds of excuses for keeping Green. I will tell you that if that guy is still manager I won't have near the interest or desire to watch again as I did at the start of this year. They will have to make a run for much of the year before I can get behind an Andy Green team again. Sorry, just the way I feel. I think the guy doesn't have it. This team is underachieving. That's on the manager.
 

Fender57

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That report makes all kinds of excuses for keeping Green. I will tell you that if that guy is still manager I won't have near the interest or desire to watch again as I did at the start of this year. They will have to make a run for much of the year before I can get behind an Andy Green team again. Sorry, just the way I feel. I think the guy doesn't have it. This team is underachieving. That's on the manager.
They’re definitely going to keep him and put him on the hot seat to start the year. I was a big Preller supporter earlier in the year but as the season progressed it was clear that he took some major liberties with the roster moves and I can’t say they were positive. Trading Franmil really turned me off because as I’ve said over and over there was zero reason to trade him for that kid who’s all potential and zero production - the Padres are already loaded with those types why do we need another? They could’ve waited until the offseason and traded him for some veteran help at 2B, C along with a good veteran arm for the pen.

While I wouldn’t cry if they fired Green I believe that they will never hire a guy like Bochy while Preller is GM, and firing Green, as much as I really dislike him as a manager, would be unfair with the bullshit roster moves he had to deal with all year long.

I’m sure somewhere Q is gloating over this admission.
 
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Fender57

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Also, they are stuck with Wil Myers. They better come up with a plan to make him useful. Naylor has got to go, he will be a good hitter but he’s a 1B by trade. Someone should be willing to trade for him in return for a player we need at other positions.
 

TTK

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They’re definitely going to keep him and put him on the hot seat to start the year. I was a big Preller supporter earlier in the year but as the season progressed it was clear that he took some major liberties with the roster moves and I can’t say they were positive. Trading Franmil really turned me off because as I’ve said over and over there was zero reason to trade him for that kid who’s all potential and zero production - the Padres are already loaded with those types why do we need another? They could’ve waited until the offseason and traded him for some veteran help at 2B, C along with a good veteran arm for the pen.

While I wouldn’t cry if they fired Green I believe that they will never hire a guy like Bochy while Preller is GM, and firing Green, as much as I really dislike him as a manager, would be unfair with the bullshit roster moves he had to deal with all year long.

I’m sure somewhere Q is gloating over this admission.
Totally agree. No manager could win with what Green had to deal with this year.

That being said, I'd love to see someone replace him. You can't really say if he has what it takes to win a championship because he's never been given a fair chance but I'll gladly admit my bias: I don't find him likable or charismatic at all. Get me someone who I can get behind.
 

Gill Man

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Agree with all the above. The problem is they traded away probably the most likeable guy on the team, not just from a player's perspective but the fans as well, and they didn't need to do that until the offseason. And agree they could have gotten more and perhaps veteran help instead of more 'potential'. And correct, Green hasn't had the best lineup and the biggest issue is his personality. Not very likeable. And even with that lineup I think they should have gone .500 or better.......the batting is way underachieving......so is it the batting coach or the manager? Either way the manager is overseeing that stuff so that's on Green unless the front office is forcing him to play certain guys more than he wants to. Whatever, this year has been a disappointment and they better start off strong next year and STAY in the hunt or Green should be let go part way thru the season. WTF. Same ol' with this organization.

And yeah the comments re: Preller must make Q happy LMAO!!!! Where is that guy? I guess he gave up on the forum. Too bad. He is a good SD fan and should come on back. Maybe he will if this team ever wins again.
 

Fender57

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Agree with all the above. The problem is they traded away probably the most likeable guy on the team, not just from a player's perspective but the fans as well, and they didn't need to do that until the offseason. And agree they could have gotten more and perhaps veteran help instead of more 'potential'. And correct, Green hasn't had the best lineup and the biggest issue is his personality. Not very likeable. And even with that lineup I think they should have gone .500 or better.......the batting is way underachieving......so is it the batting coach or the manager? Either way the manager is overseeing that stuff so that's on Green unless the front office is forcing him to play certain guys more than he wants to. Whatever, this year has been a disappointment and they better start off strong next year and STAY in the hunt or Green should be let go part way thru the season. WTF. Same ol' with this organization.

And yeah the comments re: Preller must make Q happy LMAO!!!! Where is that guy? I guess he gave up on the forum. Too bad. He is a good SD fan and should come on back. Maybe he will if this team ever wins again.
Re: Q - that’s my fault. I was getting irritated with his anti-Preller posts, he threatened to leave the forum for the umpteenth time, and I taunted him with a “don’t make promises you can’t keep”. Dumb move on my part, not only for stubbornly trying to squelch his valid opinion, but for chasing away a valuable member. We need more posters, not less. Mea Culpa Q, come back!
 
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TTK

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Agree with all the above. The problem is they traded away probably the most likeable guy on the team, not just from a player's perspective but the fans as well, and they didn't need to do that until the offseason. And agree they could have gotten more and perhaps veteran help instead of more 'potential'. And correct, Green hasn't had the best lineup and the biggest issue is his personality. Not very likeable. And even with that lineup I think they should have gone .500 or better.......the batting is way underachieving......so is it the batting coach or the manager? Either way the manager is overseeing that stuff so that's on Green unless the front office is forcing him to play certain guys more than he wants to. Whatever, this year has been a disappointment and they better start off strong next year and STAY in the hunt or Green should be let go part way thru the season. WTF. Same ol' with this organization.

And yeah the comments re: Preller must make Q happy LMAO!!!! Where is that guy? I guess he gave up on the forum. Too bad. He is a good SD fan and should come on back. Maybe he will if this team ever wins again.
In Green's defense, he's not choosing who to put in the lineup. That's being determined by others.
 

Fender57

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In Green's defense, he's not choosing who to put in the lineup. That's being determined by others.
Any manager worth his salt wouldn’t agree to such extreme measures. If Preller or the organization above Preller fires Green that would be pretty cold blooded. Green’s main job is to fill out that lineup card every night to try and win. He is really the ultimate company man, that’s why they can’t fire him at season’s end (much to my chagrin).

NEXT year, I hope Preller and the front office keeps their dirty little mitts off the major league lineup and lets Green sink or swim. We have to know if he’s got what it takes.
 

Gill Man

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Re: Q - that’s my fault. I was getting irritated with his anti-Preller posts, he threatened to leave the forum for the umpteenth time, and I taunted him with a “don’t make promises you can’t keep”. Dumb move on my part, not only for stubbornly trying to squelch his valid opinion, but for chasing away a valuable member. We need more posters, not less. Mea Culpa Q, come back!
that is stand up of you to post that. Agree we need varying opinions. Forums always end up with some heated arguments back and forth and it requires a thick skin to just ignore it as a fact of forum life. Q might have been overly sensitive to stuff so not necessarily all your fault. I do wish he'd come back, I loved his posts and his different take on most issues....always good to have that on a forum. And he's a dedicated bigtime SD fan and from out of town so that makes him special in my book. COME ON BACK Q!
 
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Gill Man

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In Green's defense, he's not choosing who to put in the lineup. That's being determined by others.
Any manager worth his salt wouldn’t agree to such extreme measures. If Preller or the organization above Preller fires Green that would be pretty cold blooded. Green’s main job is to fill out that lineup card every night to try and win. He is really the ultimate company man, that’s why they can’t fire him at season’s end (much to my chagrin).

NEXT year, I hope Preller and the front office keeps their dirty little mitts off the major league lineup and lets Green sink or swim. We have to know if he’s got what it takes.
Agree that is ridiculous for Green to put up with that if indeed Preller and higher ups are dictating the lineup. That is nuts. I think Boch is getting out of SF for similar reasons.....at least the article I read had him not liking the new management there so maybe he's under the same ridiculous guidelines up there. No manager that is decent should put up with that. In fact it reminds me exactly of aj smith hiring norb turner .......he couldn't take the stong willed Marty so he found a way to get him fired and put in his own yes man. That went exactly as expected....right down the toilet. If this is what Preller is doing they oughta can his azz. Seriously. Get a f-ing manager who will be strong enough to tell him where to go and do what is needed to get this team on the right track and produce like it is capable of. If Green can do that then go for it otherwise step aside and let someone in who will. Maybe Preller is the problem. I don't give a rats azz if he can acquire minor league talent and a great farm system if he's so controlling he cannot tolerate a manager who will call all the shots on the field. Stupid if true.
 

Fender57

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Agree that is ridiculous for Green to put up with that if indeed Preller and higher ups are dictating the lineup. That is nuts. I think Boch is getting out of SF for similar reasons.....at least the article I read had him not liking the new management there so maybe he's under the same ridiculous guidelines up there. No manager that is decent should put up with that. In fact it reminds me exactly of aj smith hiring norb turner .......he couldn't take the stong willed Marty so he found a way to get him fired and put in his own yes man. That went exactly as expected....right down the toilet. If this is what Preller is doing they oughta can his azz. Seriously. Get a f-ing manager who will be strong enough to tell him where to go and do what is needed to get this team on the right track and produce like it is capable of. If Green can do that then go for it otherwise step aside and let someone in who will. Maybe Preller is the problem. I don't give a rats azz if he can acquire minor league talent and a great farm system if he's so controlling he cannot tolerate a manager who will call all the shots on the field. Stupid if true.
Well the good news is Preller has already stocked the cupboards so it wouldn’t be like leaving us high and dry; any good GM could build on this.

But the problem could be that this is the way of doing things in the “new” baseball - sabermetrics, GMs controlling on field decisions, etc.
 

TTK

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Agree that is ridiculous for Green to put up with that if indeed Preller and higher ups are dictating the lineup. That is nuts. I think Boch is getting out of SF for similar reasons.....at least the article I read had him not liking the new management there so maybe he's under the same ridiculous guidelines up there. No manager that is decent should put up with that. In fact it reminds me exactly of aj smith hiring norb turner .......he couldn't take the stong willed Marty so he found a way to get him fired and put in his own yes man. That went exactly as expected....right down the toilet. If this is what Preller is doing they oughta can his azz. Seriously. Get a f-ing manager who will be strong enough to tell him where to go and do what is needed to get this team on the right track and produce like it is capable of. If Green can do that then go for it otherwise step aside and let someone in who will. Maybe Preller is the problem. I don't give a rats azz if he can acquire minor league talent and a great farm system if he's so controlling he cannot tolerate a manager who will call all the shots on the field. Stupid if true.
All teams are doing this. This is nothing limited to SD and SF.
 

Gill Man

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Why not just let robots manage? Surely there must be gradations of how much control a GM has over the manager. If SD is intent on maximizing the GM management of games just hire a fing robot and be done with it. boch is likely leaving SF over that crap. He left the door open to continuuing his career but would likely avoid control freak GMs. Just a hunch. Probably would avoid Preller if it’s the same issue he is stuck with in SF.if that is “the game passing him by” I think the game has gotten way too sterile for my liking. That is the crap that led to the questionable decision to trade Reyes. How does Sabre metrics account for team chemistry ? The human element is getting pushed out. Call me old fashioned but those human interest stories are the soul of the game. Same stuff happened to footballl , it used to be a better game until they began controlling it from the replay booth and neutering players. Saw a college game between Army and Michigan. The replay was used to determine the intent of a army defender to target, and the guy got called for it after the fact and the announcers disagreed. How does intent in slow motion equate to intent in real time? That was purely clearly incidental contact in real time. The player gets ejected! Effing joke. Technology and commercialism are ruining sports. Lets just have all the the GMs and officials decide outcomes now:rolleyes:
 
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Gill Man

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Welcome back Q! What happened, did you have to crawl under some rock out in the desert for a while to avoid the 110degree heat?
 

Gill Man

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well this thread appears to have run it's course......c ya greenjeans.
 

Gill Man

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Kinda like the game day thread did a month ago lol.
LMAO! I do believe Preller and the front office use this website to gauge public opinion;) Once they saw a rapid increase in no-show rate for the gameday thread Green was history:p:laugh::D