AFSF Playoff Survivor Pool!

Faded Blues

BoltTalker
Feb 10, 2018
5,443
3,760
320
49
I may have overvalued the Bills D...I wouldn't call myself a Bills fan, but I did pick them to win the SB at the beginning of the season and that may have tainted my judgement....BUT numbers don't lie, FB...they do have the No. 1 D in the league, and most casual fans would have a hard time naming 3 players on their D. Allowing 163 passing yards per game through 18 games, in today's pass dominated league, is not just good; it historically great. Furthermore, if you look at my score prediction, I have the Chiefs scoring 31 points...far from a shut down!
The Bills, or any other Defense in the league, would have a problems containing the speed of the Chiefs...That's why the Chiefs are at home in the playoffs. If you look at the last sentence in my post, I fully expect Mahomes and Chiefs speedy receivers (No. 3 offense in the league) to torch the Bills No. 1 D for good points; I just think that Allen and the Bills No. 5 ranked Offense will put up more points on the Chiefs 27th ranked D!!
If the Chiefs weren't so banged up at RB, I would've given them a much better chance to win this game...But Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) practiced for the first time in weeks on Wednesday, and is questionable for the game....So is Darrel Williams who didn't practice yesterday (toe). Their "healthy" backfield consists of Jerick McKinnon, and Derrick Gore! It just so happens that what the Chiefs do best on Offense (pass) is exactly what the Bills are the best in the league at stopping. The Bills lost 6 games this year, other than the loss the the Jaguars which was probably one for Vegas, all other losses came against teams that can RUN the ball...IND, TEN, PIT, NE, and TB, all have better rushing attack than the Chiefs posses with a fully healthy backfield.

Regarding Chiefs D line and the pressure they can bring -which NE couldn't- it's exactly what Josh Allen thrives on. He evades pressure at a higher percentage, and throws for more air yards under pressure than anyone else...He is a BIG boy and his ability to move out of the pocket and make plays with both his arm and his legs puts a lot of pressure on a D who decides to blitz him. If the Chiefs bring pressure, watch for Allen to make a lot of plays outside the pocket and also run for good yardage...if they try to spy him with the "honey badger" Tyrann Mathieu, he will torch them deep to Diggs and Sanders.

2021 Advanced QB Next Gen stats haven't come out yet, but I'm sure he's improved on what they say here after the 2020 season:

Allen posted the most air yards per attempt under pressure in the NFL last season (13.2), reinforcing what we already knew: The Bills QB isn’t afraid to let it fly, no matter the circumstance. That statistic is interesting, though, considering how much Allen improved his efficiency in 2020. We might have an explanation. Allen evaded pressure at a higher rate than anyone else in the league at 26.1 percent — an increase of nearly 10 percentage points from his mark in that category in 2019. Mobility mattered for Allen, who has thrown five or more passing touchdowns under pressure in each season of his career. Allen and Matt Ryan are the only quarterbacks with five or more passing scores under pressure in each season since 2018. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and the Bills staff found a way to maximize Allen’s abilities in 2020, leading to their memorable season and deep playoff run. Now it’s up to Allen to continue on this track and try to help get the Bills over the hump in 2021.
Make no mistake, the bills are Legit. Vegas essentially has this as a pick ‘em game.

I think the chiefs are overall a better team and know how to win in the playoffs.

The chiefs win in a squeaker.
 

handoverfist

BoltTalker
Sep 10, 2018
2,378
2,213
250
57
Make no mistake, the bills are Legit. Vegas essentially has this as a pick ‘em game.

I think the chiefs are overall a better team and know how to win in the playoffs.

The chiefs win in a squeaker.
Hey buddy, you may be dead on...that's why they play the game!!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gill Man

handoverfist

BoltTalker
Sep 10, 2018
2,378
2,213
250
57
The first of 4 games this weekend is CIN @ TEN. This one is a tough one for me to call...for one thing, as I've been forced to admit many times in the past, I can't pick Titans games if my life depended on it...and also this Bengals team seems to be improving with every outing, gaining in confidence and stature; making them an unknown commodity and very risky to bet against. The Bengals ceiling is so high that they can win this game by 30 points and it wouldn't come as a shock, yet expectations -coming in to the season- were so low that they could get blown out by the same number and it wouldn't surprise. Their season would be considered a success regardless of the outcome. I don't think anyone is getting blown out in this game.

The Titans get Derrick Henry back, and assuming he's back to full health, he will be FRESH. Before getting injured, Henry was putting up some gaudy numbers...He got almost 1000 rushing yards in the 8 games he played in, averaging 117 yds/g...considering that in past seasons he got better in the latter stages of the season, we could've seen him break the single season rushing record. To their credit, the Titans hardly skipped a beat after losing Henry. D'Onta Foreman was more than a capable backup, and the thought of a backfield tandem with Henry and Foreman must be giving CIN defensive players nightmares. I'm not taking anything away from these two, when I say that the Oline and the blocking scheme is largely responsible for their running success. They are a physical bunch.
On the passing side, we all know who Ryan Tannehill is...he's not going to set the world on fire with his arm, but he's not a kid who plays with matches and won't burn your own house down either. They never replaced Jonna Jones (NE), so they're weak at TE; but they do have decent/very good WRs. AJ Brown is the go to guy, and he is serious threat with speed and size (63 catches for 869 yds)...Julio Jones was brought in to play opposite Brown, and give Tannehill a dependable target between the 20's; however I really haven't seen that chemistry develop between them. Who I have been impressed with is Slot Receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who's name you will surely hear quite bit on Saturday. Their bread and butter -understandably so- is the play-action-pass, and that aspect of their passing game should improve greatly after Henry breaks off his first 20 yard run in the game.
They are just as physical and nasty on Defense. They went out and got Bud Dupree from PIT, who I love; but he hasn't panned out the way they thought...or maybe they're just saving him for the playoffs, but Dupree is the type of player that can do it all and impact the game from the D side. The player that I hardly ever hear anyone mention is S Kevin Byard...this guy plays like his hair is on fire, and in this game, that might actually be the case! In 17 games this year, he amassed 88 tackles, 5 Ints, 2 FF, and 2 TDs...he's a 1st team All-Pro. Titans are also 2nd in the league in TOP, which means their D is usually fresher than the other team's in the latter stages of the game, and that's another benefit of their running game that is often overlooked. Over the course of the season, they ranked 12th in overall D, but were 2nd against the run, giving up only 86.4 yards per game on the ground. Also important to note that although they give up some yards in the passing game, they don't give up a lot of points, 20.8 pts/g is good enough for 5th in the league.
Safe to say, that in this day and age of passing football, the Titans' philosophy is old and simple...Run the ball, and stop the other team from running the ball.

I've talked quite a bit about the Bengals during the season, warning everyone about the emergence of Ja'Marr Chase as a top WR. But they run a traditional passing offense, with a pocket QB, 3 WRs and a TE in the passing game and a single 3 down RB...they don't do all the gimmicks and the wildcat and other formations, and all the pre-snap player movement and motions, like a KC or GB or SF or LAR. They basically lineup and run plays, knowing that their guy is going to beat your guy for the ball...and they often do. There MAY be better single receivers in the game than who CIN has, but not one team in the league currently has 3 WRs on their roster that can top Chase, Higgins and Boyd as a group.
They're going to have to score a lot of point, because their D can give up a lot of yards and points...something we saw in their game against the LAC. They will have their top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson (concussion) for this game, but the loss of DT Larry Ogunjobi in the interior of the line is really going to hurt them against the Titans. They're better against the run than they are against the pass, but I honestly can't see them being able to stop the Titans run game, and unless they can create a couple of turnovers, they're going to be liability in this game.

These two didn't play each other this year, but they did in Nov. last year before Joe Burrow went down with injury...so he did play in that game. In that game Henry got 112 yds and 1 TD, and Corey Davis caught 10 passes for 128 and 1 TD; but Burrow passed for 249 and 2 TDs and the Bengals beat the Titans in CIN 31-20!! There is no Corey Davis in TEN now...he's been replace/upgraded with Julio Jones...but CIN didn't have Chase and Joe Mixon in that game, and we're talking huge upgrades with those two.

CIN....29
TEN....32
 

Faded Blues

BoltTalker
Feb 10, 2018
5,443
3,760
320
49
The first of 4 games this weekend is CIN @ TEN. This one is a tough one for me to call...for one thing, as I've been forced to admit many times in the past, I can't pick Titans games if my life depended on it...and also this Bengals team seems to be improving with every outing, gaining in confidence and stature; making them an unknown commodity and very risky to bet against. The Bengals ceiling is so high that they can win this game by 30 points and it wouldn't come as a shock, yet expectations -coming in to the season- were so low that they could get blown out by the same number and it wouldn't surprise. Their season would be considered a success regardless of the outcome. I don't think anyone is getting blown out in this game.

The Titans get Derrick Henry back, and assuming he's back to full health, he will be FRESH. Before getting injured, Henry was putting up some gaudy numbers...He got almost 1000 rushing yards in the 8 games he played in, averaging 117 yds/g...considering that in past seasons he got better in the latter stages of the season, we could've seen him break the single season rushing record. To their credit, the Titans hardly skipped a beat after losing Henry. D'Onta Foreman was more than a capable backup, and the thought of a backfield tandem with Henry and Foreman must be giving CIN defensive players nightmares. I'm not taking anything away from these two, when I say that the Oline and the blocking scheme is largely responsible for their running success. They are a physical bunch.
On the passing side, we all know who Ryan Tannehill is...he's not going to set the world on fire with his arm, but he's not a kid who plays with matches and won't burn your own house down either. They never replaced Jonna Jones (NE), so they're weak at TE; but they do have decent/very good WRs. AJ Brown is the go to guy, and he is serious threat with speed and size (63 catches for 869 yds)...Julio Jones was brought in to play opposite Brown, and give Tannehill a dependable target between the 20's; however I really haven't seen that chemistry develop between them. Who I have been impressed with is Slot Receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who's name you will surely hear quite bit on Saturday. Their bread and butter -understandably so- is the play-action-pass, and that aspect of their passing game should improve greatly after Henry breaks off his first 20 yard run in the game.
They are just as physical and nasty on Defense. They went out and got Bud Dupree from PIT, who I love; but he hasn't panned out the way they thought...or maybe they're just saving him for the playoffs, but Dupree is the type of player that can do it all and impact the game from the D side. The player that I hardly ever hear anyone mention is S Kevin Byard...this guy plays like his hair is on fire, and in this game, that might actually be the case! In 17 games this year, he amassed 88 tackles, 5 Ints, 2 FF, and 2 TDs...he's a 1st team All-Pro. Titans are also 2nd in the league in TOP, which means their D is usually fresher than the other team's in the latter stages of the game, and that's another benefit of their running game that is often overlooked. Over the course of the season, they ranked 12th in overall D, but were 2nd against the run, giving up only 86.4 yards per game on the ground. Also important to note that although they give up some yards in the passing game, they don't give up a lot of points, 20.8 pts/g is good enough for 5th in the league.
Safe to say, that in this day and age of passing football, the Titans' philosophy is old and simple...Run the ball, and stop the other team from running the ball.

I've talked quite a bit about the Bengals during the season, warning everyone about the emergence of Ja'Marr Chase as a top WR. But they run a traditional passing offense, with a pocket QB, 3 WRs and a TE in the passing game and a single 3 down RB...they don't do all the gimmicks and the wildcat and other formations, and all the pre-snap player movement and motions, like a KC or GB or SF or LAR. They basically lineup and run plays, knowing that their guy is going to beat your guy for the ball...and they often do. There MAY be better single receivers in the game than who CIN has, but not one team in the league currently has 3 WRs on their roster that can top Chase, Higgins and Boyd as a group.
They're going to have to score a lot of point, because their D can give up a lot of yards and points...something we saw in their game against the LAC. They will have their top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson (concussion) for this game, but the loss of DT Larry Ogunjobi in the interior of the line is really going to hurt them against the Titans. They're better against the run than they are against the pass, but I honestly can't see them being able to stop the Titans run game, and unless they can create a couple of turnovers, they're going to be liability in this game.

These two didn't play each other this year, but they did in Nov. last year before Joe Burrow went down with injury...so he did play in that game. In that game Henry got 112 yds and 1 TD, and Corey Davis caught 10 passes for 128 and 1 TD; but Burrow passed for 249 and 2 TDs and the Bengals beat the Titans in CIN 31-20!! There is no Corey Davis in TEN now...he's been replace/upgraded with Julio Jones...but CIN didn't have Chase and Joe Mixon in that game, and we're talking huge upgrades with those two.

CIN....29
TEN....32
cincy is San Diego circa 2004. They better start winning super bowls cause nfl windows close fast unless your Tom Brady.

Cincy has the most talented roster in the nfl just like the chargers did back then - well we know how the chargers story finished. Let’s see if cincy has a different story to spin.
 
  • Like
Reactions: handoverfist

handoverfist

BoltTalker
Sep 10, 2018
2,378
2,213
250
57
cincy is San Diego circa 2004. They better start winning super bowls cause nfl windows close fast unless your Tom Brady.

Cincy has the most talented roster in the nfl just like the chargers did back then - well we know how the chargers story finished. Let’s see if cincy has a different story to spin.
I agree to some extent. There are similarities...but I can't remember the Chargers ever having a Receiving Corp like the one the Bengals have assembled. Frankly, I can see more of a resemblance to the 79 or 1980 Chargers...The 1980 SDC featured 3 Receivers with over 1000 yards receiving, of course one of them was a young TE named Kellen Winslow (23)...Fouts was Probowler, and JJ (1340yds), Joiner (1132), and Winslow (1290) were all 1st Team All-Pro...The team was so much better than everyone else at passing the ball, that they finished with the No. 1 offense in the league, even though they ranked 16th in the Run!! Chuck Muncie was the lead back with 659yds.
This Cinci team, has three Wideouts that put up the same kind of numbers...Chase (1455), Tee Higgins (1091), and Tyler Boyd (828)...but their TE CJ Uzomah also added 493 yds, and Joe Mixon chipped in with 314 yds receiving and 1205 yards on the ground!!!
Now, when you consider that Burrow is only 25, Chase 21, Higgins 22, Boyd 27, Mixon 25, and Uzomah is the old man at 28; this team's "window" will be open for a number of years to come.

BTW...I have trouble calling the 2004 Chargers the "most talented roster in the NFL"....The 2006 or 2007 SDC teams were far more talented and could be in the conversation for the best rosters in the league for their respective years.
 

DFWBoltFan

Where am I?
Apr 19, 2011
6,610
917
340
I agree to some extent. There are similarities...but I can't remember the Chargers ever having a Receiving Corp like the one the Bengals have assembled. Frankly, I can see more of a resemblance to the 79 or 1980 Chargers...The 1980 SDC featured 3 Receivers with over 1000 yards receiving, of course one of them was a young TE named Kellen Winslow (23)...Fouts was Probowler, and JJ (1340yds), Joiner (1132), and Winslow (1290) were all 1st Team All-Pro...The team was so much better than everyone else at passing the ball, that they finished with the No. 1 offense in the league, even though they ranked 16th in the Run!! Chuck Muncie was the lead back with 659yds.
This Cinci team, has three Wideouts that put up the same kind of numbers...Chase (1455), Tee Higgins (1091), and Tyler Boyd (828)...but their TE CJ Uzomah also added 493 yds, and Joe Mixon chipped in with 314 yds receiving and 1205 yards on the ground!!!
Now, when you consider that Burrow is only 25, Chase 21, Higgins 22, Boyd 27, Mixon 25, and Uzomah is the old man at 28; this team's "window" will be open for a number of years to come.

BTW...I have trouble calling the 2004 Chargers the "most talented roster in the NFL"....The 2006 or 2007 SDC teams were far more talented and could be in the conversation for the best rosters in the league for their respective years.
Man 2006-2007 San Diego Chargers - how fun were those years?

I miss that.
 

Gill Man

Inaugural SAN DIEGO Charger Fan Since 1962 FUDEAN
Staff member
Moderator
Sep 1, 2017
19,059
8,416
340
well I'm eliminated...fucking blockhead :rolleyes: :roflmao:
 

DFWBoltFan

Where am I?
Apr 19, 2011
6,610
917
340
well I'm eliminated...fucking blockhead :rolleyes: :roflmao:
Me too. :roflmao:

I'll tell you though I've never seen a more poorly managed final two minutes of a game, with two time outs, and they just let time continue to run while still needing to go 40 plus yards to get into field goal range. What a total cluster fuck - they deserved to lose.
 

Harryo the K

Well-Known Member
Aug 26, 2017
10,405
5,914
340
71
Me too. :roflmao:

I'll tell you though I've never seen a more poorly managed final two minutes of a game, with two time outs, and they just let time continue to run while still needing to go 40 plus yards to get into field goal range. What a total cluster fuck - they deserved to lose.
I didn't see the game first hand. Watched the last two minutes here.
Titans were not into that ending. Poor, very por.
Bengals are roaring.

 
  • Like
Reactions: DFWBoltFan

ThunderHorse17

Lone Wolf
Apr 10, 2010
7,489
1,017
350
Missouri
Me too. :roflmao:

I'll tell you though I've never seen a more poorly managed final two minutes of a game, with two time outs, and they just let time continue to run while still needing to go 40 plus yards to get into field goal range. What a total cluster fuck - they deserved to lose.
Did you not see the last minute of the raider charger game? Or you just talking about last 2 minute instances?
 

Gill Man

Inaugural SAN DIEGO Charger Fan Since 1962 FUDEAN
Staff member
Moderator
Sep 1, 2017
19,059
8,416
340
Fucking Packer special teams lost the game....gave the Niners at least 10 points...just handed to them. Blocked punts , blocked FG, gave up big returns. And LaFleur sucks. Eff the Packers for losing to the Niners. Looks like you are out now too HOF bro. Damn. I'm truly depressed by that outcome.
 

handoverfist

BoltTalker
Sep 10, 2018
2,378
2,213
250
57
Fucking Packer special teams lost the game....gave the Niners at least 10 points...just handed to them. Blocked punts , blocked FG, gave up big returns. And LaFleur sucks. Eff the Packers for losing to the Niners. Looks like you are out now too HOF bro. Damn. I'm truly depressed by that outcome.
I had a family emergency yesterday, so other than the 1st Q of the TEN-CIN game, I didn't watch any of the games. I recorded them to watch later, but I DO KNOW that I'm out!
Looks like the OVER players (overwhelming majority) were taken to the cleaners, and most playoff survivor pools took a big hit with both No. 1 seeds literally getting booted out!

Good luck to who ever is still left!!...

LET'S GO BILLS - RAMS!!
 

Faded Blues

BoltTalker
Feb 10, 2018
5,443
3,760
320
49
Fucking Packer special teams lost the game....gave the Niners at least 10 points...just handed to them. Blocked punts , blocked FG, gave up big returns. And LaFleur sucks. Eff the Packers for losing to the Niners. Looks like you are out now too HOF bro. Damn. I'm truly depressed by that outcome.
nick bosa might be the best player in football. I think he is better than Donald.
 

Gill Man

Inaugural SAN DIEGO Charger Fan Since 1962 FUDEAN
Staff member
Moderator
Sep 1, 2017
19,059
8,416
340
I had a family emergency yesterday, so other than the 1st Q of the TEN-CIN game, I didn't watch any of the games. I recorded them to watch later, but I DO KNOW that I'm out!
Looks like the OVER players (overwhelming majority) were taken to the cleaners, and most playoff survivor pools took a big hit with both No. 1 seeds literally getting booted out!

Good luck to who ever is still left!!...

LET'S GO BILLS - RAMS!!
Hope things are ok there bro
 

Gill Man

Inaugural SAN DIEGO Charger Fan Since 1962 FUDEAN
Staff member
Moderator
Sep 1, 2017
19,059
8,416
340
Anybody left standing???
not me, ha ha. I think kwak took the Rams so at least one. Maybe he's the winner already??? Will wait for the call from Toronto, it's under official review by HOF.
 

Kwak

....
May 25, 2006
4,846
1,039
330
not me, ha ha. I think kwak took the Rams so at least one. Maybe he's the winner already??? Will wait for the call from Toronto, it's under official review by HOF.
I had to make that pick because I didn't get my Tenn pick in. Guess it worked out. LOL

What a crazy day of football yesterday. Just nutty, but I had a big smile watching Brady lose. Crybyaby little bitch.
 

Kwak

....
May 25, 2006
4,846
1,039
330
I had a family emergency yesterday, so other than the 1st Q of the TEN-CIN game, I didn't watch any of the games. I recorded them to watch later, but I DO KNOW that I'm out!
Looks like the OVER players (overwhelming majority) were taken to the cleaners, and most playoff survivor pools took a big hit with both No. 1 seeds literally getting booted out!

Good luck to who ever is still left!!...

LET'S GO BILLS - RAMS!!
Hope all is well my friend.