- Feb 10, 2018
Make no mistake, the bills are Legit. Vegas essentially has this as a pick ‘em game.I may have overvalued the Bills D...I wouldn't call myself a Bills fan, but I did pick them to win the SB at the beginning of the season and that may have tainted my judgement....BUT numbers don't lie, FB...they do have the No. 1 D in the league, and most casual fans would have a hard time naming 3 players on their D. Allowing 163 passing yards per game through 18 games, in today's pass dominated league, is not just good; it historically great. Furthermore, if you look at my score prediction, I have the Chiefs scoring 31 points...far from a shut down!
The Bills, or any other Defense in the league, would have a problems containing the speed of the Chiefs...That's why the Chiefs are at home in the playoffs. If you look at the last sentence in my post, I fully expect Mahomes and Chiefs speedy receivers (No. 3 offense in the league) to torch the Bills No. 1 D for good points; I just think that Allen and the Bills No. 5 ranked Offense will put up more points on the Chiefs 27th ranked D!!
If the Chiefs weren't so banged up at RB, I would've given them a much better chance to win this game...But Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) practiced for the first time in weeks on Wednesday, and is questionable for the game....So is Darrel Williams who didn't practice yesterday (toe). Their "healthy" backfield consists of Jerick McKinnon, and Derrick Gore! It just so happens that what the Chiefs do best on Offense (pass) is exactly what the Bills are the best in the league at stopping. The Bills lost 6 games this year, other than the loss the the Jaguars which was probably one for Vegas, all other losses came against teams that can RUN the ball...IND, TEN, PIT, NE, and TB, all have better rushing attack than the Chiefs posses with a fully healthy backfield.
Regarding Chiefs D line and the pressure they can bring -which NE couldn't- it's exactly what Josh Allen thrives on. He evades pressure at a higher percentage, and throws for more air yards under pressure than anyone else...He is a BIG boy and his ability to move out of the pocket and make plays with both his arm and his legs puts a lot of pressure on a D who decides to blitz him. If the Chiefs bring pressure, watch for Allen to make a lot of plays outside the pocket and also run for good yardage...if they try to spy him with the "honey badger" Tyrann Mathieu, he will torch them deep to Diggs and Sanders.
2021 Advanced QB Next Gen stats haven't come out yet, but I'm sure he's improved on what they say here after the 2020 season:
Allen posted the most air yards per attempt under pressure in the NFL last season (13.2), reinforcing what we already knew: The Bills QB isn’t afraid to let it fly, no matter the circumstance. That statistic is interesting, though, considering how much Allen improved his efficiency in 2020. We might have an explanation. Allen evaded pressure at a higher rate than anyone else in the league at 26.1 percent — an increase of nearly 10 percentage points from his mark in that category in 2019. Mobility mattered for Allen, who has thrown five or more passing touchdowns under pressure in each season of his career. Allen and Matt Ryan are the only quarterbacks with five or more passing scores under pressure in each season since 2018. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and the Bills staff found a way to maximize Allen’s abilities in 2020, leading to their memorable season and deep playoff run. Now it’s up to Allen to continue on this track and try to help get the Bills over the hump in 2021.
I think the chiefs are overall a better team and know how to win in the playoffs.
The chiefs win in a squeaker.